I’ve learned not to make rash predictions about election results; however, I do have some thoughts about what factors will play to the outcome of this one. Christy Clark isn’t the bright new face she was six years ago. She entered the campaign as a popular radio talk show host. And most people, with the exception of teachers and hard-core New Democrats, liked her.
She proved a much more capable campaigner than Adrian Dix. Dix took the unusual tact of trying to be Mr. Nice Guy and didn’t use attack ads, the likes of which tend to work.
Clark wore hard hats and made grandiose promises. She’d balance the budget, which she did. She’d kick start a Liquefied Natural Gas industry that would pave the way to a debt-free B.C. In fact, the industry hasn’t emerged, and Clark has overseen an $11-billion increase in the provincial debt.
As premier, Clark pushed ahead with the very expensive Site C dam project to the point where most observers feel is past the point of no return. She’s insisted on a 10-lane $3.5-billion Massey Tunnel replacement. All but one mayor opposes that project.
The NDP has done what I think is an effective job of painting Clark and the Liberals as the party of rich and comfortable people, many of whom are donors to the party itself and Clark personally.
Despite all this baggage, the Liberals have an edge going into this election. They have 48 seats (counting Pat Pimm’s Peace River North riding) to the NDP’s 35. There are two additional ridings as well. As a veteran of B.C. politics now well out of it reminded me recently, there are 12 ridings the Liberals hold that were won by 5,000 votes four years ago. That’s a total of 5,000 all together. So if a few thousand people who voted Liberal last time don’t vote this time, or change their vote, it’s an all-new ballgame.
The other factor is the Green Party. In my view, Andrew Weaver has a much higher profile than former leader Jane Sterk. He has a seat in the legislature. He performed well in the last televised debate, and it’s just a gut feeling I have that some soft Liberal votes will go Green.
There are people who can never bring themselves to vote NDP, but may not be big Clark fans. There are Liberals who supported Gordon Campbell who don’t have much love for Clark.
John Horgan, on the other hand, does not have much of a profile outside the recently fertile Vancouver Island area. Andrew Weaver is well known on the island, too, and his base looks to be growing. How much he takes from the NDP and how much from the Liberals we won’t know until late May 9.
That’s why this election is so hard to predict.
williamgood@shaw.ca
