If polls are any indication, Mayor Gregor Robertson's popularity is waning.

Or is it?

Justason Market Intelligence released a poll to the Globe and Mail Tuesday showing Robertson had a 49 per cent approval rating among 505 adults randomly surveyed in August by telephone and in an online poll.

In May, Strategic Communications, which helped run and fund Robertson's 2008 election campaign, released a poll to the Vancouver Sun indicating the mayor had a 78 per cent approval rating.

While NPA Coun. Suzanne Anton was quick to point out to the Courier the 29 per cent drop in the mayor's popularity, Barb Justason of Justason Market Intelligence said the link cannot be drawn.

That's because the 49 per cent approval rating she discovered in her poll included respondents (29 per cent) who didn't have an opinion. Had she not included those respondents in her calculation, the numbers would add up to a 69 per cent approval rating for Robertson.

"It's a bit of a drop, but it could be apples to oranges," said Justason, who has not seen the poll done by Strategic Communications.

The Strategic Communications' poll did not include respondents who were undecided when it finalized its numbers, putting Robertson's approval rating at 78 per cent, according to Ian Baillie, executive director of the mayor's party, Vision Vancouver.

"It's just a different way of reporting it," said Baillie, noting both polls also had a margin of error of five per cent. "Pollsters are sort of like lawyers--everybody has a different opinion on how to best represent the numbers."

The Courier contacted Bob Penner, the president and chief executive officer of Strategic Communications, for further explanation and to view a copy of the poll. But Penner said he was busy in meetings Wednesday and referred calls to Baillie.

Regardless of the methodology of the Justason poll, Vision Vancouver issued a press release Tuesday with the headline, "New poll shows Vision Vancouver almost twice as popular as NPA."

The release did not include the 49 per cent approval rating for the mayor but instead focused on a result that showed 52 per cent of voters would vote for Vision compared to 28 per cent for the NPA and 13 per cent for COPE.

"If those numbers held today, you'd have the same result as we did on election day [in 2008], and that was a huge landslide for Vision Vancouver," Baillie said.

Also missing from Vision's release was Justason's finding that 55 per cent of people polled were uncertain about how or even if they will vote. As a result, the poll's findings by no means predict a Vision win in 2011, Justason said.

Some of Justason's findings:

- Homelessness and poverty are top issues of concern for respondents, with 48 per cent approving of the ruling Vision council's work on reducing street homelessness. One third (34 per cent) disapproved with 18 per cent undecided.

- Just over half (55 per cent) of respondents approve of council's efforts to improve the Downtown Eastside. One quarter (27 per cent) disapprove with 18 per cent undecided.

- Council's handling of the Olympic Village, which was in financial trouble and still hasn't sold all the condos or moved anybody in the 252 affordable housing units, was given a 43 per cent disapproval rating. A total of 36 per cent approved, with 21 per cent undecided.

mhowell@vancourier.com