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Absentee ballots, five tight races hold key to next B.C. government

The future of British Columbia’s government hangs on about 176,000 absentee ballots that won’t be counted until May 22.
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The future of British Columbia’s government hangs on about 176,000 absentee ballots that won’t be counted until May 22.

Based on the initial vote count, which includes advance and general ballots, the Liberals lead with 43 seats, the NDP hold 41 and the Greens have three.

Those numbers could change because of five tight races. The Liberals could have as many as 45 seats or as few as 40. The NDP could have 39 to 44.

While attention is focused on Courtenay-Comox, where nine votes separate the NDP and Liberal candidates, at least four other districts could also swing from one leading party to the other when the final count is in.

The 43-41 split on election night is based on the Liberals leading in three of these ridings, and the NDP leading in two.

If the Liberals take Courtenay-Comox and Maple Ridge-Mission from the NDP, and retain the other three tight seats, it would have a comfortable majority of 45 seats. The NDP would have 39. The Liberals would be able to pick a Speaker from their own ranks and still pass legislation without depending on support from the other parties.

The NDP and Greens would lose the power to form a coalition, formal or otherwise, to outvote the Liberals.

On the other hand, the NDP would have 44 seats, a slim majority, if it retains the two ridings where it has slim leads, and takes Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, Richmond-Queensborough and Vancouver-False Creek from the Liberals. The Liberals would be left with 40.

A third possibility is a tie, with the NDP winning one seat from the Liberals, putting each party at 42 seats — giving the Greens significant bargaining power.

In the event of a tie, Lt.-Gov. Judith Guichon would offer one of the two leaders a chance to be premier. Liberal Leader Christy Clark, as the current premier, would likely be given the first opportunity to form government.

While we wait for the absentee ballots to decide who wins this election, there is this sure thing: The Greens have three seats.

asmart@timescolonist.com