It’s easy enough to understand the confusion in the minds of some members of the public. We woke Wednesday morning to read about the brazen killing of a gangster at an upscale restaurant at Vancouver’s Sheraton Wall Centre early the night before. It was one of a string of revenge killings that have been taking place between rival gangs in B.C. for months now.

At the regular monthly meeting of the Vancouver Police Board later on Wednesday, a report was presented boasting that crimes of all sorts are actually down in Vancouver, including violent crime. And while crime is down across the country, it’s apparently dropping here at twice the national rate.

We could debate why this has been happening over the past few years or accept that it’s a combination of reasons: demographics are changing so the number of men of the age most likely to be involved in criminal activities is declining; we have more cops on the street; and there are more effective programs steering people away from crime, including taking more homeless people off the streets and providing them with shelters. Regardless, the numbers are going down.

That presentation by the police, however, was followed by another to the board. This one was by Bruce Owen of the NRG research group reporting on, among other things, “people’s perceptions” of crime. And, don’t you know, Owen and his team have discovered that people’s perception of violent crime in this neck of the woods is that it’s increasing.

It’s this perception, one that flies in the face of the facts, upon which Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper is peddling his omnibus crime bill. It is actually a series of bills, a “hodgepodge” as it has been called, that is seeking harsher penalties, mandatory minimum sentences and an increased likelihood that more people will spend time in already overcrowded prisons; it’s practically guaranteeing more prisons will be built.

Incidentally, if you want to know how far the Tories have drifted, you can do what I did. In the break following the public portion of the police board meeting and before they went in camera, I asked board member and former Tory MP Mary Collins how she reconciled what Harper, a fellow Tory, was up to given the statistical evidence. She smiled then said three things: “I am a red Tory” a species that is practically extinct and was exemplified by the likes of former prime minister Joe Clark noted for his social liberalism. Then she said, “I’d rather not comment.” And finally, she added, Harper “does have a constituency” for what he’s up to.

And that is precisely the point. Even though most of the nine justice bills in his Safe Streets and Communities Act were defeated by previous Parliaments and were widely criticized to the point of ridicule when the Conservatives were in a minority, Harper has persisted in a strategy designed to build his political base.

There are, in fact, portions of the bill where there is agreement; those areas that deal with support for victims and penalties for child sexual assault.

What has drawn the most heat is the issue of mandatory minimum sentences for growing pot (six plants get six months in the bucket) and tougher approaches for young offenders, folks seeking pardons and Canadians serving terms abroad who want to complete their sentences here.

This is not the only example, of course, of Harper’s stubborn refusal to deal with facts in building his political base. It’s precisely the route Harper’s government pursued in its failed attempt to shut down Insite, Vancouver’s supervised injection site.

Nonetheless, it’s unlikely with his majority in the House of Commons and the Senate where the bill is now being debated that he will fail in this. Regardless of the plunging crime rate, the bill is expected to become law in March.

agarr@vancourier.com