On the face of it, I would have to say the Yes side in the Transit plebiscite doesn’t stand a chance.
The most recent poll from Insights West this week shows more than a 20 point spread between those who would vote against a 0.5 per cent sales tax increase to support a 10-year plan to improve transportation and those who would vote for it.
If it wasn’t for the fact that we all lived through the last provincial election where Christy Clark’s Liberals successfully dug themselves out of a seemingly impossible hole and beat the NDP, I’d say the Yes forces and the province would save us a lot of money and anxiety by just calling it quits and surrendering now.
Nothing that the Yes forces have managed to do so far, including pushing aside the CEO of TransLink — while continuing to pay out his contract — or appointing respected billionaire business guy Jimmy Pattison to oversee the spending of the tax dollars to be raised, has moved the dial in their favour.
If polls are to be believed, quite the opposite has taken place.
The Yes side continues to slide down. Only 18- to 34-year-olds are mildly in favour.
To make matters worse, even members of the mayors council who agreed to this dubious exercise seem to be losing their resolve.
The mayor of Delta, Lois Jackson, says she is unclear as to what her municipality will get out this. Of course, she knows now that her municipality will get a new $2 billion dollar George Massey Bridge to replace the tunnel without the bother of a plebiscite thanks to the premier.
Even more discomforting for the folks on the Yes side, Surrey mayor Linda Hepner and her staff make it no secret that they are well on their way to developing Plan B should the plebiscite fail. They are in talks with Ottawa about a public private partnership to build a light rail system in their municipality.
They are doubtlessly being aided in their efforts to get funding by Tory star federal candidate and former Surrey mayor Dianne Watts. And rumours abound that Clark will move quickly to toss her share of dough into the pot (without a plebiscite of course) should the feds come on board as a way of shoring up provincial Liberal support in Surrey.
Meanwhile the No side continues with its one-note samba, ignoring the mayors’ plan and attacking TransLink as an inefficient organization that should find funds by tightening its belt. The irony is that while this line of assault seems to be persuasive, TransLink has been audited repeatedly over the past few years. Each audit ends with demands to squeeze even more out of its budget.
The net effect has been that TransLink has jacked up fares and removed resources from lesser used routes in the suburbs — making transit services worse there and placing some on more profitable routes. Oddly enough, as a result, ridership has actually declined.
All that said, there is still a glimmer of hope that the plebiscite will pass, and I’ll tell you why.
Unlike conventional elections, which tend to be a sprint to the finish line, this plebiscite should be considered to be more of a marathon. The voting doesn’t happen in one day, it takes place over 11 weeks.
And an important key to success will be the exercise of getting that vote out. While the No side has undoubtedly been successful thus far in dominating the conversation, that is about to change.
When it comes to feet on the ground, they simply cannot compete.
The Yes forces are finally gearing up. People representing not just the mayors council but some 120 civic groups are starting to enter the field, from students to environmentalists, trade unions and business folks.
They will flood social media, hold telephone town halls and face-to-face public gatherings, handing out pamphlets and making their case for more livable communities.
They will be engaging in what is the biggest, most politically diverse operation of its kind a metropolitan area in this country has ever seen.
And, you know what? It might just work.
If it does, we’ll all be better for it, which is worth bearing in mind.
