The pundits and analytics have weighed in, and they say the Canucks are going to be pretty much just as bad this season as they were last season. That seems pretty optimistic: there are plenty of reasons to believe the Canucks will be a lot worse in the 2017-18 season than they were in 2016-17.
Here are five of them:
1. No heirs to the Sedins
The Sedins have become second-line players; at this point, there’s no denying it. Unfortunately for the Canucks, they don’t have anyone to take their place, at least not yet. Elias Pettersson and Jonathan Dahlen have first-line potential, but they’re both playing in Sweden this season.
Bo Horvat led the team in scoring last season, but it’s still a massive question mark whether he can step up as a legitimate first-line centre. Ideally, he’s a high-end second-line centre on a playoff-contending team. Meanwhile, Sven Baertschi has a career-high 35 points. Even if there are indications he can produce more, it’s still a gamble.
Simply put, the Canucks lack the high-end talent needed to compete with the best teams in the NHL and it will cost them games.
2. Not enough youth
As much as the Canucks have committed verbally to a youth movement, there’s not a lot of youth being injected into the lineup. That’s partly because Jim Benning was active in free agency, adding Sam Gagner, Thomas Vanek, Michael Del Zotto, Alexander Burmistrov, and Anders Nilsson, more than replacing the players that departed the roster.
Of the young players looking to make the roster out of camp, just two made it: Brock Boeser and Jake Virtanen. Judging from practice lines heading into the season opener on Saturday, Virtanen might not even be in the opening night lineup and Boeser won’t be in the top-six or on the power play.
3. Goaltending gamble
Ryan Miller bailed the Canucks out of games repeatedly last season; without some standout performances from him, the Canucks would have finished a lot lower in the standings. That’s worrisome, as he’s gone now, and the Canucks have two untested 27-year-olds looking to replace him between the pipes.
Can either Jacob Markstrom or Anders Nilsson become a true number one goaltender after years of being a backup? Can they form a capable tandem? Neither have ever played even half a season, so they’re completely untested when it comes to the long grind of starting game-after-game.
If neither Markstrom nor Nilsson can step up, it won’t matter how many goals the Canucks’ skaters score.
4. Not enough goalscoring
Speaking of goals, the Canucks are banking on the addition of Vanek and Gagner to provide a goalscoring boost. The two forwards combined for 35 goals last season, which is, quite frankly, not enough to make up for how goal-starved the Canucks have been over the last couple seasons.
Beyond Vanek and Gagner, the Canucks are hoping for career years for Horvat and Baertschi, a bounceback season from the Sedins, a Calder-caliber season from Brock Boeser, and no regression from Markus Granlund. That’s a whole lot of hope.
5. Defensive deficiencies
While Vanek, Gagner, and Del Zotto will give the Canucks’ an offensive boost, they come with some serious red flags in the defensive zone. Add in the already existing defensive woes of Horvat, the slow-skating, penalty-taking issues of the Sedins, and the question mark of Erik Gudbranson on the blue line, and the Canucks might give up a whole lot of scoring chances this season.
The Canucks also lack options on the penalty kill, which will likely keep someone like Derek Dorsett in the lineup ahead of the more exciting option of Jake Virtanen. It will also likely mean a lot of penalty-killing time for Horvat, who seriously struggling in shorthanded situations last season.
Combine all those factors and the Canucks might be competing with the Las Vegas Golden Knights for last place in the NHL.
