Canucks fans got some welcome news on Thursday. Our long provincial nightmare is over: Bo Horvat will soon be back in the Canucks lineup.
Horvat hit the ice at Rogers Arena Thursday morning for the first time (that we know of) since he fractured his foot against the Carolina Hurricanes on December 5th. At the time, his injury was overshadowed by Jacob Markstrom’s first career shutout, but it has loomed large since then.
Guess who's backkkk?! @BoHorvat has been medically cleared to travel and will practice with the #Canucks in Edmonton on Friday. He is expected to return to the lineup soon. pic.twitter.com/LmfFnPspCN
— Vancouver Canucks (@Canucks) January 18, 2018
When Horvat returns, the Canucks will need to sent someone to Utica, with Michael Chaput the most likely candidate.
The Canucks have spiralled since Horvat’s injury. At the time, the Canucks were actually in a playoff position, sitting third in the Pacific Division. In the 17 games since, the Canucks have gone 4-11-2, spiralling into the basement of the Western Conference.
The only reason the Canucks are not dead last in the West is that as bad as the Canucks have been without Horvat, the Arizona Coyotes have been that bad all season long.
The most recent estimate for Horvat’s return suggested he would be back by the All-Star break, so he’s actually a little ahead of schedule. The All-Star festivities will take place on the weekend of January 27th and 28th, while Horvat will be skating with the team on Saturday in Edmonton. If he plays on Saturday, that will be a full week in advance of the All-Star break.
There’s no need to rush Horvat back into the lineup, apart from the Canucks being awful without him. Frankly, the Canucks have zero chance at a playoff berth and should act accordingly. That means taking their time with injuries to ensure the best possible long-term result for each player.
At this point, it looks like it will take 93-94 points to make the playoffs in the Western Conference. The Canucks are at 42 points, needing 51-52 more points in their 37 remaining games. That’s a record of, say, 24-10-3.
There are still plenty of reasons to keep watching, however, and Horvat’s return could have a major influence on the biggest one: Brock Boeser’s race for the Calder Trophy.
Boeser’s rookie campaign has been the most compelling story of the Canucks 2017-18 season. It’s been particularly impressive how he hasn’t missed a beat in the absence of his most common linemates: Horvat and Sven Baertschi. His three-game point drought heading into the Canucks’ bye week was the first time all season that he’s gone three games without a point.
Now Travis Green and the Canucks have a choice to make: do they reunite Boeser with Horvat immediately or do they try to spread out the scoring by keeping Boeser and Horvat on separate lines? The choice they make will have a ripple effect and may decide whether Nic Dowd stays in the lineup, which is, of course, every Canucks fan's biggest concern.
Boeser has been playing with Thomas Vanek and Sam Gagner, developing chemistry in particular with Vanek. If Horvat returns to Boeser’s line, it seems likely that Vanek will stay, moving Sam Gagner back to the wing.
That would most likely mean that Dowd stays in the lineup as the fourth-line centre and one of Brendan Gaunce or Jake Virtanen moves to the press box. Green has developed a liking for Dowd, using him extensively for defensive zone faceoffs and the penalty kill and that would potentially take some defensive weight off Horvat in his return.
Alternately, Green could reunite Horvat and Baertschi on a line with one of Virtanen, Markus Granlund, or Loui Eriksson on their right wing. That would be more of a two-way line that would get defensive zone faceoffs and some line-matching duty, and would keep the line of Vanek, Gagner, and Boeser together as a scoring line.
In this scenario, Dowd would sit, with Horvat, Gagner, Henrik Sedin, and Brandon Sutter as the four centres. It would also give Horvat a little less pressure to produce offensively in his return to the lineup and would likely give the Boeser line some softer matchups and zone starts.
Either option could work and both have the potential to give Boeser a boost, so I’ll put the question to you: what would you do? What lineup would you put on the ice with Horvat returning to the lineup?
