The Canucks replaced the departing Ryan Miller on the first day of free agency, signing Anders Nilsson to a two-year contract worth $2.5 million per year. In trying to find a backup for Jacob Markstrom, they ended up with someone who looks an awful lot like him.
Nilsson was the goaltender I suggested the Canucks target, as he’s coming off a very strong season for the Buffalo Sabres where he posted an average or above-average save percentage on every category of shot: high-difficulty, medium-difficulty, and low-difficulty.
Matt Cane’s contract model predicted a ~$1.87 million average annual value for Nilsson, so bringing him in on a $2.5 million deal feels like a slight overpayment, but not significantly so.
The Canucks essentially just signed a carbon copy of Jacob Markstrom. They’re both 6’6”. They were born two months apart. They both played on Sweden’s 2010 World Junior team and they each have two World Championship medals.
Both have posted stunning seasons outside the NHL — Markstrom in the AHL, Nilsson in the KHL — but have been unable to break through as true number ones in the NHL. And that’s what makes the coming season so interesting.
The Canucks net is Markstrom’s to lose — with Ryan Miller gone, the Canucks have to follow through on their rhetoric — but the Canucks net also presents Nilsson’s best chance at a number one role. If Markstrom falters, Nilsson will be ready and willing to take on the bulk of the starts.
Nilsson may well be better than Markstrom. Over the last three seasons, Nilsson has posted a significantly stronger save percentage than Markstrom on high-difficulty shots. He’s struggled a bit more with medium and low-difficulty shots, but was better on those this last season. His overall .923 save percentage last season is eight points better than Markstrom’s career best save percentage in more than 10 games.
It’s entirely unknown how either goaltender will fare with an increased workload, but the Canucks just need one of them to bear the burden for this season and the next until Thatcher Demko is ready to challenge for the starter’s role.
