The Canucks hold the fifth overall pick in the 2016 draft—a disappointment to fans who were hoping for a top-3 pick, but an enviable position for 25 other teams. With that pick, Jim Benning has the opportunity to shape the future of the franchise by selecting the team’s next superstar.
So far, the discussion surrounding the pick has centred around a few players. Everyone seems to agree that the Canucks will pick either Pierre-Luc Dubois or Matthew Tkachuk, with an outside possibility of selecting Alexander Nylander. Or, if the Canucks are determined to get a defencemen, they could select Olli Juolevi, Jakob Chychrun, or Mikhail Sergachev, the consensus best defencemen in the draft.
But what if Benning doesn’t follow the consensus? What if his draft list looks wildly different than those of the scouts and the draft experts that we hear from. What if he, heaven forbid, goes off the board?
In this case, “off the board” doesn’t have the same meaning as it usually might. A team going off the board with the 20th pick, for instance, usually means they’re grabbing a guy who was expected to get picked in the second round. Going off the board with the 5th overall pick could just mean getting a guy who wasn’t expected to get picked in the top 10.
Sure, it’s thoroughly unlikely that he’ll do so—his interviews have suggested he’s leaning towards Dubois or Tkachuk—but there’s an argument to be made that going off the board is actually the right thing to do.
Craig Button thinks so. In a mock draft after the lottery, the TSN analyst suggested that the Canucks could pick Logan Brown, the 6’6” centre for the Windsor Spitfires. The reasoning is pretty easy to figure out: the Canucks need a playmaking centre to take up Henrik Sedin’s mantle and Brown combines vision and passing with the size that makes an old-school guy like Jim Benning giddy.
Plus, there’s a little bit of a Canucks connection: his father, Jeff Brown, played parts of three seasons with the Canucks and was a big part of their run to the Stanley Cup Finals in 1994. Add in 12 points in 7 games at the U-18 World Championship, a tournament that Benning has previously paid special attention to, and it’s not implausible that the Canucks could look to Brown.
But there’s a question of how highly Button actually thinks of Brown, however, as his most recent draft rankings from March have him ranked 27th overall. Other publications have him ranked higher, with International Scouting Services placing him at 7th overall, and other experts think he has first line potential, but he’s not the guy I would want if the Canucks went off the board. I’m wary of big players in major junior who put up fewer points than their smaller counterparts, though I should say his 74 points in 59 games are nothing to scoff at and his passing ability is hard to ignore.
I’m more intrigued by Clayton Keller, a smaller, but exceptionally skilled centre who racked up points in the USHL and for the US U-18 development program.
At just 5’10” and 170 lbs, there are understandable concerns about his size that have driven him to mid-first round in most experts’ draft rankings, but in terms of skill, he’s right up there with the top three. Keller is also one of the youngest players in the draft, as he won’t turn 18 until the end of July.
Corey Pronman thinks highly of Keller as well, ranking him fourth overall, suggesting he'll have the best NHL career after Matthews and the Finns. He's the only one, however, that ranks Keller in the top five. He describes him as “a complete offensive player who seems to generate chances and display distinct puck-moving abilities whenever he takes a shift.”
After drafting Brock Boeser last year, it’s clear Jim Benning pays attention to the USHL, where Keller had 37 points in 23 games, leading that league in points-per-game. He led the US National Development Team in scoring with 107 points in 62 games, 36 points more than his teammate Kieffer Bellows, who is also expected to be a first round pick.
At the U-18 World Championship, Keller led the US in scoring with 14 points in 7 games, and was second in the tournament in scoring. He has so much creativity, vision, and skill, that he seems like the type of player that will have fans wondering in the future, “Why didn’t my team draft this guy?”
Another player with that potential is Tyson Jost, who was the lone player to out-score Keller at the U-18 tournament, finishing with 6 goals and 15 points in 7 games. He had a monstrous season in the BCHL, scoring 42 goals and 104 points in 48 games, well over twice as many points-per-game as the next best under-18 forward.
Jost is also a centre with first-line upside, who possesses exceptional skating ability and can make plays at top speed. It’s that ability to play and think at a fast tempo that suggest his offensive ability will translate to the NHL.
As an added bonus, Jost is on his way to the University of North Dakota next year, where he could potentially take Drake Caggiula’s spot on the top line with Brock Boeser. Can you imagine two Canucks first round picks building chemistry for a year before coming to Vancouver?
But what if the Canucks want to get a defenceman? If they went off the board for a blueliner, they could target Charlie McAvoy.
McAvoy was the youngest player in the NCAA this past season, but still put up 25 points in 37 games for Boston University. Those are great numbers for any freshman, but for a defenceman they’re fantastic.
McAvoy loves to jump up in the play, joining the rush, or skating the puck around the offensive zone, looking to pry open a passing lane. Unsurprisingly, he can also quarterback the power play. He combines that offensive ability with some toughness and a solid defensive game.
The question with McAvoy is if he has enough of a well-rounded game to be a top pairing defenceman. If not, the Canucks can’t afford to select him fifth overall.
There’s one other off-the-board defenceman that might have top-pairing potential, however: Dante Fabbro. Tyson Jost’s teammate with the Penticton Vees had a huge season himself, putting up 67 points in 45 games, leading all BCHL defencemen.
Scouting reports repeatedly praise Fabbro’s complete game and hockey IQ, combining an excellent defensive game with a lot of offensive potential. Corey Pronman describes how Fabbro controls the pace of play with his passing: “The way Fabbro moves the puck dictates the tempo of the shift.”
Pronman, incidentally, has Fabbro ranked as the second-best defenceman in the draft behind Olli Juolevi. If the Canucks are looking for a well-rounded, top-pairing defenceman who can play in all situations, Fabbro might well be one of the best options in the draft.
What do you think? Does the prospect of going off the board with the fifth overall pick terrify you or thrill you? Exactly how sick to your stomach do you feel right now?
