In the first round of the 2017 NHL playoffs, the Nashville Predators did something that all Canucks fans can appreciate: they swept the Chicago Blackhawks.
It’s not just that they swept them; they did it in dominant fashion, outscoring the Blackhawks 13-3. Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane finished the series with two points each; so did Pekka Rinne. Yes, the Predators’ goaltender had the same number of points as the Blackhawks’ two star forwards.
What makes it even better is how the Blackhawks were the top seed in the Western Conference and were seen as unstoppable. And then they were stopped so very, very easily.
But aside from schadenfreude, there’s something else we can take from the Predators: some lessons in drafting defencemen.
While it’s interesting to note how the Predators built their top-six forward group — their top three forwards in ice time in the regular season, Ryan Johansen, Filip Forsberg, and James Neal, were all acquired via trade — they have long prioritized building from the backend. Even with two 30+ goalscorers, the Predators were again dependent on their defencemen this season: they didn’t have a single forward in the top-30 in NHL points.
Their defence this season is built around a true top-four group: Roman Josi, PK Subban, Ryan Ellis, and Mattias Ekholm averaged more than 23 minutes per game this past season, with their other defencemen averaging well below 20 minutes. Each of their top-four defencemen plays significant minutes in every situation: they don’t use their third pairing for penalty kill or power play specialists, despite having capable options like Yannick Weber in that role.
Their top two pairings are all adept puck-movers capable of contributing offensively and the Predators’ system is dependent on their ability to quickly transition the puck up ice. Josi and Subban both finished with 40+ points, Subban in only 66 games, while Ellis had 38 points and Ekholm 23.
That’s particularly notable for the Canucks, who haven’t had a defenceman crack 40 points since Alex Edler and Kevin Bieksa both did so in 2011-12, though Edler and Dan Hamhuis were both on pace for 40+ points in the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season.
While defence is a clear strength for the Predators, only one of their top-four was selected in the first round of the draft. Ellis was picked highest at 11th overall, while Josi and Subban were both second round picks and Ekholm was from the fourth round. With the Canucks likely looking for a centre in the first round, they could look for a defenceman with the 33rd overall pick.
The Canucks’ future defence corps still needs some work, particularly with Tryamkin scarpering back to Russia. If the Canucks are committed to a rebuild, one or both of Alex Edler and Chris Tanev could be traded. If you’re optimistic, Troy Stecher and Ben Hutton could have 40-point potential, but I’m not confident in either of them in a top-pairing role.
While they have drafted a number of defencemen with NHL potential, it still looks like an area of weakness in the Canucks’ prospect pool. Olli Juolevi looks like a solid bet to be a top-four defencemen, but there’s a lot more uncertainty around the likes of Evan McEneny, Tate Olsen, and Carl Neill. So let’s look at the Predators’ top-four and any lessons we can glean from who they were when they were drafted.
Matthias Ekholm
Ekholm is the most intriguing to me: he was selected in the same draft as Oliver Ekman-Larsson and scored just a hair less than Ekman-Larsson in the Allsvenskan in his draft year. And yet, Ekman-Larsson went 6th overall after an outstanding U18 tournament, while Ekholm was available in the fourth round.
The lesson: keep an eye out for players who perform at or near the level of higher-rated players, particularly if they’re expected to go much later in the draft.
Who might fit the bill in the 2017 draft? Perhaps Filip Westerlund, who played in the SHL and Superelit just like Timothy Liljegren, who is expected to go in the top-10. Westerlund scored about the same number of points as Liljegren in both leagues, albeit while playing in more games. Any 17-year-old defenceman that sticks in the SHL for 33 games should get a long look.
There’s also Urho Vaakanainen, who could slip into the second round. His point totals lagged a bit behind potential top-10 pick Miro Heiskanen in the Finnish league, but his skillset and 41 games against men at 17 suggest strong NHL potential.
Roman Josi
Josi is interesting as well: there’s no chance he goes in the second round if we had a do-over of the 2008 draft. He was a teenager playing against men in the Swiss league, which is unusual for a defenceman. He also vastly outscored every other teenager in the league, including the forwards. Combine that with some strong international performances for Switzerland and there’s an argument to be made that scouts should have seen his performance coming.
The lesson: teenagers that outperform their peers playing against older players deserve more attention, even if it is in a lesser league.
There’s not necessarily a clear example of that this year. One possibility would be Calle Sjalin, who played in Division1, the third-tier Swedish league, but was the highest scoring 17-year-old in that league and doesn’t turn 18 until September 2nd, making him one of the youngest players in the draft. Sjalin would be a serious sleeper pick, but the last defencemen the Canucks drafted out of Division 1 turned out pretty well for them: Alex Edler.
Ryan Ellis
Then there’s Ellis, who definitely should not have fallen to 11th overall in the 2009 draft. The Ottawa Senators took Jared Cowen two spots ahead of him. Cowen had 21 points in 48 games in his draft year, but he’s 6’5”. Ellis had 89 points in 57 games, then 31 points in 20 playoff games, but he’s 5’10”.
I’m not sure how anyone could have seen this coming, but Cowen is terrible and Ellis is really good. The lesson: size matters not. Or, at the very least, don’t overlook a player’s ability to put up points (or lack thereof) because of their size. Now Ellis is leading all defencemen in scoring in the playoffs with 9 points in 8 games, while Cowen was traded to the Leafs, put on waivers, and bought out of his contract.
Cale Makar and Erik Brannstrom are both skilled, yet undersized defencemen, but neither will be available in the second round and neither fit the bill for the Canucks at fifth overall. Jack Rathbone, Mario Ferraro, Jakub Galvas, and David Kvasnicka are undersized defencemen worth keeping an eye on for day two of the draft.
P.K. Subban
Finally, there’s Subban. One lesson with Subban is that if someone offers you a younger, better Norris-winning defenceman for your older, overrated, Norris-nominated defenceman, you take it. Kind of a difficult lesson to apply practically.
That said, you could say the spirit of the lesson is to lean towards puck-moving, mobile defencemen over physical, stay-at-home defencemen. That may seem like a very basic lesson to learn, considering the direction of the league over the last decade, but it’s one with which the Canucks seem to struggle.
As for when Subban was drafted, he was selected 43rd overall in 2007 after 15 goals and 56 points in 68 OHL games. He was the top-scoring draft-eligible defenceman in the OHL, but he was out-scored by two young defencemen — Drew Doughty and Michael Del Zotto — with another younger defenceman, Alex Pietrangelo, right behind him.
Maybe the lesson with Subban is that just because a defenceman is surrounded by other really good defencemen eligible for the following years draft, don’t lose sight of just how talented and dynamic that player is?
That’s a difficult lesson to apply, but the Canucks could look to Pierre-Olivier Joseph out of the QMJHL. He could be a possible selection with the Blue Jackets’ second-round pick the Canucks are slated to receive as compensation for John Tortorella. Joseph finished behind Nicolas Beaudin in points and just ahead of Xavier Bouchard, both defencemen eligible for the 2018 draft. That doesn’t make him Subban, but he is a dynamic, puck-moving defenceman with a lot of upside that would be worth a second-round pick.
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Are any of these defencemen the next Ekholm, Josi, Ellis, or Subban? It’s impossible to say, but those four defencemen do give you some interesting principles for finding a top-four defenceman at different points in the draft. If the Canucks go with a centre at fifth overall, like I think they should, they could still use their second-round picks to find a defenceman with top-four potential.
