It took less than ten minutes for Loui Eriksson to score his first goal with the Vancouver Canucks. Unfortunately, he scored it into his own net.
With Ryan Miller on the bench for the extra attacker, Eriksson stickhandled his way through the neutral zone, keeping the play alive with four Flames skaters haranguing him. Unfortunately, his pass back to Erik Gudbranson was off the mark and slid all the way down into Miller’s vacated net.
All of that barely needs to be written. Canucks fans perfectly remember Eriksson’s ignominious debut. That own goal came to define Eriksson’s disappointing 2016-17 season, his first of six on his $6 million contract. It didn’t help that it took him nearly a month — 14 games — before he scored a goal into the net at the other end of the ice.
What might be forgotten, however, is that Eriksson played a key role in scoring the tying goal for the Canucks, leading to a shootout win. He combined with the Sedins for one of the most dominant Sedin shifts of all time — which is saying a lot — cycling the puck in the offensive zone for a minute-and-a-half before Eriksson fed the puck across the crease to Daniel for the finish.
For a moment, it looked like Eriksson came as advertised: his pre-existing chemistry with the Sedins would revitalize the twins and once again make them a first line to be reckoned with.
Alas, it was not to be. Eriksson’s scoring drought knocked him off the Sedin line and he ended up spending a lot of the season with Brandon Sutter. Ice time with Sutter isn’t exactly a recipe for offensive production.
In the end, Eriksson wound up with his worst offensive season since his rookie year, scoring just 11 goals after putting up 30 in his previous season in Boston, and just 24 points.
By traditional statistics, Eriksson’s season was a disaster. By more modern statistics, however, there was more to his season than meets the eye and those statistics suggest he’s heading towards a bounceback year.
Of Canucks forwards who played at least 200 minutes last season, just three finished north of 50% in corsi (shot attempt differential). Those three were Brendan Gaunce (who saw lesser competition on the fourth line), Markus Granlund, and Loui Eriksson. When Eriksson was on the ice, the Canucks controlled possession, in a season where that was a rarity.
This was especially true when he played with the Sedins. Of all the Sedins’ linemates last season, Eriksson led the way with a 55.44% corsi. That suggests their inability to score was strongly influenced by bad bounces rather than poor play.
According to Goals Above Replacement, Eriksson was the Canucks’ second most valuable player overall, in spite of the games he missed due to injury. According to Natural Stat Trick, Eriksson had the second most chances on the Canucks from high-danger areas, behind only Bo Horvat.
Everything about Eriksson’s season indicates that it was a lot better than his lackluster point totals. So why didn’t he put up more points?
Part of it was his shooting percentage: he scored on 8.3% of his shots, below the average of 10.75% for forwards last season. It was also nearly half of his shooting percentage from his 30-goal season, when he scored on 16.3% of his shots.
In general, Eriksson has had a high shooting percentage in his career, mainly because he gets chances in close to the net from high-danger areas. Unfortunately, shooting percentages for close-in scorers like Eriksson tend to fluctuate more than for a sniper who picks corners from further out, simply because chaos reigns around the net. Eriksson's career average is 13.4% and you can expect a regression towards that mean next season.
While Eriksson is unlikely to score 30 goals next season, 20 goals to go with strong two-way play is well within his reach, particularly if he gets another look with the Sedins. There's a strong argument to be made that he should and it's possible we could see more dominant shifts like we saw to start last season.
If it helps, look at his first season in Boston. Like this past season, he was limited to just over 60 games due to an injury. He scored fewer goals, even as he put up more points overall. He finished with 10 goals and 37 points in 61 games.
That had to be a disappointment for the Bruins, who acquired Eriksson in the Tyler Seguin trade. Prior to the 2012 lockout, Eriksson had consistently put up 20+ goals and 70+ points for the Dallas Stars. He was second on the Stars in scoring behind Jamie Benn and the Bruins clearly expected him to be a point-producer in a new setting.
Eventually, Eriksson did produce points, but it took time. He bounced back with 22 goals in his second season with the Bruins, then 30 in his third season. There’s no guarantee he’ll do the same for the Canucks, but writing him off after one sub-par year would be foolish.
