The Canucks’ prospect pool is dangerously low on defencemen, leading to an expectation that Jim Benning and Judd Brackett will select one with the seventh overall pick. The top of the draft is expected to be defence-heavy, giving them lots of options from which to choose.
But what if the best player available when their pick comes up isn’t a defenceman?
It’s easy to see this happening: Rasmus Dahlin will obviously go first overall to the Buffalo Sabres, and most expect Andrei Svechnikov and Filip Zadina to go second and third. After that, all bets are off.
The Ottawa Senators could take a forward, but they have good reason to take a defenceman, particularly with Erik Karlsson’s future in Ottawa uncertain. The Arizona Coyotes and Detroit Red Wings also have a significant need for defencemen in their system, so it would be completely understandable for them to take defencemen as well.
It wouldn’t be surprising if the top defencemen on the Canucks’ draft list were already off the board before the seventh pick.
Fortunately (or unfortunately, depending on your point of view), the Canucks also need more blue-chip forward prospects. The Canucks have finished near the bottom of the league in goals for the last three seasons. This past season saw a small improvement thanks to Brock Boeser, but they were still 26th in the NHL.
The Canucks certainly have some excellent forward prospects on the way — Elias Pettersson, Jonathan Dahlen, Adam Gaudette, and Kole Lind are all promising players — but it might not be enough. That’s particularly true given the departure of the Sedins.
That means, if a forward is higher on their draft list than a defenceman — if they honestly believe that the forward will be the better NHL player — they need to take the forward. That likely means addressing the need for defenceman in some other way, whether that means trading Chris Tanev for another first round pick or swinging for the fences with a high-risk/high-reward defenceman in the second round.
Who are the forwards that the Canucks might take ahead of a defenceman at seventh overall?
Brady Tkachuk
The Canucks should take him…
...if he falls to seventh overall.
There are some that suggest Brady Tkachuk could compete with Svechnikov and Zadina to be picked in the top three, while others put Tkachuk in a lower tier. If the teams picking ahead of the Canucks are among the latter, Tkachuk might be available to the Canucks. They passed on Matthew, would they pass on his younger brother?
Tkachuk is big, mean, and talented. He plays a great two-way game, but has the offensive skill to be a true power forward. He had 8 goals and 31 points in 40 games for Boston University, excellent numbers for a young freshman in the NCAA. He also stood out at the World Junior Championship, tallying 3 goals and 9 points in 7 games to finish sixth in scoring and first among draft-eligible players.
In addition, he plays at left wing, an area of need in the Canucks system.
The Canucks shouldn’t take him…
...if they’re worried he won’t reach his potential.
The Canucks have a history of having the lesser brother in their organization — Steve Kariya, Fedor Fedorov, Daniel Sedin — and it would be frustrating if Brady ends up not as good as Matthew while they’re playing in the same division.
The odds of Tkachuk reaching his potential and becoming a top-line forward look good, but it’s worth keeping in mind that he’s one of the oldest players in the draft. He’s 11 months older than Adam Boqvist, for example. At this age, that difference can be significant.
Perhaps Tkachuk becomes a 40-50 point scorer in the NHL, while other forwards taken in the top 10 become point-per-game players. Are the other aspects of Tkachuk’s game — the agitating, the physicality, the two-way game — enough to make up the difference in scoring?
Oliver Wahlstrom
The Canucks should take him…
...if they want another Brock Boeser.
Wahlstrom has been compared to Boeser because he also has an elite shot, possibly the best in this draft class. The difference is that Wahlstrom is faster and stronger than Boeser at the same age. Wahlstrom is coming off a superb USHL season, with 22 goals and 45 points in 24 games. That’s ahead of guys like Kyle Connor and Clayton Keller in terms of goals and points per game.
On top of that, Wahlstrom dominated at the World Under-18 Championships, scoring 7 goals and 9 points in 7 games.
The Canucks shouldn’t take him…
...if they’re worried about overcrowding the right wing.
Okay, that’s not much of a reason to avoid Wahlstrom. A team is allowed to have two elite snipers on the right wing and a one-two punch of Boeser and Wahlstrom on the right wing would be appetizing.
There’s also a chance for Wahlstrom to shift back to centre, a position he player prior to playing with Jack Hughes. He has the playmaking to make it work, even if there are some questions about his commitment to the defensive side of the game.
But really, the only reason not to take Wahlstrom is if he gets picked higher than 7th or the Canucks have a defencemen ahead of him on their draft board. What would truly be intriguing is if the three teams ahead of the Canucks take defencemen and it comes down to Tkachuk or Wahlstrom.
Isac Lundestrom
The Canucks should take him…
...if they think he’s a first-line centre.
Lundestrom has earned comparisons to Lias Andersson, taken seventh overall by the New York Rangers last season. It was considered a reach at the time and it would be considered a reach to take Lundestrom seventh as well, but after a great SHL season and a standout performance as captain of Sweden’s World Junior team, opinions have shifted on Andersson.
Lundestrom played all season in the SHL, an impressive feat for an 18-year-old, and had a solid 15 points in 42 games. He’s responsible defensively, but is also a great playmaker and potentially projects as a David Krejci type of player. If Elias Pettersson ends up at right wing, the Canucks will still need a first-line centre.
Jeremy Davis at Canucks Army has Lundestrom ranked seventh overall, which is noteworthy, as Canucks Army also ranked Pettersson significantly higher than other publications.
The Canucks shouldn’t take him…
...if they see him as more of a complementary player.
Lundestrom is a mature, responsible two-way centre, but opinions are mixed on whether he has the high-end offensive ability to play on the first line. He’s more of a “safe” pick than someone you would expect to get in the top 10 of the draft.
Picking Lundestrom seventh overall would be more of a reach than Pettersson last season, with less chance that Lundestrom is as elite as Pettersson.
Jesperi Kotkaniemi
The Canucks should take him…
...if he’s going to continue his upward trajectory.
The Finnish centre has improved immensely and improved his draft ranking at the same time. A year ago, scouts questioned his skating, and he’s improved immensely since then. He’s on the younger side of the draft — he doesn’t turn 18 until July — and with his determination and work ethic, he could continue to grow.
Kotkaniemi has good size and combines it with a superb shot, elite vision, and great playmaking ability. He played the full season against men in the Finnish Liiga, finishing with 10 goals and 29 points in 57 games. That production compares favourably to the likes of Sebastian Aho, Jesse Puljujarvi, and Teuvo Teravainen.
Craig Button has compared him to Anze Kopitar https://www.tsn.ca/craig-s-list-bouchard-rocketing-up-draft-board-1.1031499, while Corey Pronman projects him as a first-line centre and has ranked him fourth overall. Kotkaniemi could be the playmaking centre that Boeser and Pettersson (if he ends up on the wing) need.
The Canucks shouldn’t take him…
...if they’re concerned about his skating.
Kotkaniemi’s main deficiency is his skating, even with the effort he’s put in to improve it. His awkward skating stride needs a lot of work. While Canucks fans are prone to dismiss skating issues after seeing Bo Horvat turn his weak skating into a strength, but not every player can make the improvements that Horvat has.
Most rankings have Kotkaniemi outside the top 10, with his skating the biggest issue. Kotkaniemi could turn out to be a first-line centre, but might not have the speed to make that kind of impact at the NHL level.
