We’ve spent a lot of time wondering if Bo Horvat can step up and become the Canucks’ first-line centre. After all, he led the Canucks in scoring last season, the first non-Sedin to do that in over a decade. He did that at just 21, then re-signed a long-term contract worth $5.5 million per year, a little bit more than you would want to pay for a second-line centre.
There are certainly some concerns: out-scoring the Sedins in 2016-17 isn’t as impressive as it once was, after all, and his defensive game hasn’t developed as quickly as his offence, which could be an issue when he faces the best other teams have to offer more often. Still, there are reasons to be optimistic about Horvat and you can even draw comparisons between Horvat and legitimate first-line centres like Nathan MacKinnon and Sean Monahan.
One thing that would help Horvat perform well as a first-line centre is first-line-caliber linemates. And the one player that has been stuck to Horvat’s hip over the last couple seasons is Sven Baertschi.
It’s pretty much assumed that Baertschi will be playing with Horvat in the coming season, but that may not be a safe assumption. The Canucks don’t lack for options on the wing, from veteran top-six forwards like Thomas Vanek, Loui Eriksson, and Sam Gagner, to younger wingers looking to prove themselves like Markus Granlund, Brock Boeser, Nikolay Goldobin, and Jake Virtanen.
When asked about whether Horvat and Baertschi will line up together once again in the coming season, new head coach Travis Green played it coy. “It’s definitely on my board a lot of days,” he said. “They had a pretty good year last year and I’m sure we’ll see them together for part of the season or at least probably try it in exhibition a little bit.”
“Obviously, I hope for that,” said Baertschi when I asked him about sticking with Horvat. “We complement each other pretty well.”
Baertschi thinks the duo can build off last year and looks forward to the challenge of moving up the roster into a first-line role. “Both of us, we work for it,” he said. “We want to obviously protect our spots, but at the same time, we also want to move up and that’s just natural for us.”
Here’s the question: is Baertschi capable of being a first-line forward? Does he have what it takes?
It’s a fair question to ask: Baertschi had just 35 points last season, which doesn’t exactly scream “first-line forward,” albeit he scored them in 68 games. Even with that in mind, his points-per-game of 0.51 last season also doesn’t suggest a first-line forward and would place him 150th among forwards with at least 50 games played last season.
His point totals, then, suggest that Baertschi is a solid second-line winger, but a long way away from being a first-line forward, even if he did have the best assist of the Canucks’ season when he backheeled the puck to Brock Boeser on his first NHL goal.
His points look a little different, however, when you put them in the context of his ice time. Baertschi averaged 15:52 per game in total ice time and 13:42 at even-strength, which was 138th among forwards with at least 50 games played. It should come as no surprise that Baertschi was being used like a second-line forward last season.
Baertschi put up 1.86 points-per-hour at 5-on-5, which ranks him 86th among NHL forwards. With 30 teams and 3 forwards per line, you could say that the top-90 forwards are first-line forwards.
If that’s the criteria, then Baertschi is already a borderline first-line forward, but only just. If Canucks fans are looking to be optimistic about Baertschi’s chances at success in a first-line role, that’s not quite enough.
There are a couple other good signs, however. His goal-scoring rate over the past two seasons is firmly in first-line territory. Last season, he put up 18 goals in 68 games: his goals-per-hour at 5-on-5 was 1.06, good for 31st among NHL forwards. If he can stay healthy and play a full 82 games, then it would be well within reach for him to hit 25 goals, which would make him, in today’s NHL, a first-line forward.
There’s also the matter of who he ends up playing with, assuming that Green does keep him and Horvat together. The most likely candidates are Thomas Vanek and Brock Boeser, though Markus Granlund, Loui Eriksson, and Sam Gagner lurk in the shadows.
During Boeser’s nine-game audition last season, he posted a corsi percentage of 51.91% with Baertschi and Horvat. That immediately suggested that Boeser was a better two-way player than people might think, as Baertschi and Horvat generally struggled to keep their heads above water at 5-on-5 puck possession.
Add in Boeser’s superb shot and underrated playmaking ability and the Canucks might have a legitimate first line. That’s asking a lot from a rookie, but Boeser might be able to take both Horvat and Baertschi’s games to the next level.
On the other hand, the Canucks might prefer a veteran presence alongside the younger Horvat and Baertschi. In that case, Vanek would make sense, with the caveat that the line would need to be sheltered heavily.
Vanek’s reputation as a defensive liability precedes him and it’s backed up by his analytics. He was heavily sheltered in Detroit last season, which mitigated those liabilities, but it’s awfully difficult to shelter a first line. Add in Horvat’s own defensive issues and that could be a problem. That’s a line that might be able to score a bunch thanks to Vanek’s finish and playmaking, but might give up as much as they get.
All told, there is certainly reason to be optimistic about Baertschi’s ability to take a step forward in the coming season. So far in the preseason, he certainly looks ready to take that step: he was the Canucks’ best forward in the two games in China, scoring a goal in each and showing off his quick hands.
With the right linemates and a boost in ice time, Baertschi has the skill to be a good first-line winger. If he can put it all together this coming season, trading a second-round pick for him will look like even more of a steal.
