One of the biggest bright spots of the Canucks’ season so far has been the power play. The Canucks have converted on 22.9% of their power play opportunities, placing them fifth in the NHL.
That’s particularly impressive considering how much the power play struggled to start the season. It went 4-for-45 in the first nine games and only really started clicking in mid-November, when Travis Green and Newell Brown moved Brock Boeser and Bo Horvat to the first power play unit with Alex Edler and the Sedins.
Prior to that November 14th game against the Los Angeles Kings, the Canucks’ power play was converting on 14.1% of their chances. Since then, they’re 18-for-51: 35.3%. That’s better than every other power play in the NHL during that time frame.
While the second unit has kicked in some goals, the biggest difference has been the first power play unit, which has thrived with the addition of Boeser and Horvat. With Boeser taking up residency at the left faceoff circle as the first unit’s main shooter and Horvat setting up shop in front of the net, the first unit has become a force to be reckoned with.
Here’s the thing: the power play has continued to produce since Bo Horvat got injured.
The power play is 7-for-23 (30.4%) since Horvat’s last game, including their current streak of four-straight games with a power play goal. Without Horvat, the Canucks’ even-strength play and penalty kill has gone all to hell, but their power play keeps rolling along.
We’re looking at a very small sample size here, so it’s fair to ask if it’s just luck that has allowed the power play to keep producing, but there’s actually evidence to suggest the first power play unit is better without Horvat.
Thanks to Natural Stat Trick’s line tool, we can look at the Canucks’ first power play unit with and without Horvat. The key indicator of future success if unblocked shot attempts (or fenwick), so pay particular attention to FF/60 on the following chart, though I’ve included shot attempts (corsi), shots on goal, goals, scoring chances, and high-danger chances as well.
I’ve also included the league average for each statistic to see how the Canucks compare.
It’s a small sample size, but the difference is stark: the first power play unit has been way better without Horvat than they have been with him. They create shot attempts, unblocked shot attempts, shots, scoring chances, high-danger chances, and goals at a higher rate without Horvat.
In fact, with Horvat the first unit is below average in each statistic except for goals, and the unit without Horvat has produced far more of those as well.
I can’t say it enough: this is a small sample size. Boeser, Edler, and the Sedins have played just a little over 16 minutes on the power play without Horvat and this could just be an anomaly. The power play could certainly go on a cold streak over the next month without Horvat, rendering this analysis null and void, but it’s still odd to see the first unit so far below league average with Horvat on it.
Last season, Bo Horvat was the Canucks’ most efficient point producer on the power play, putting up 3.83 points per hour with the man advantage. This season, he’s barely in the top-10.
Horvat is actually producing more on the power play this season — 4.64 points per hour — but the power play has been so much better that he’s been left behind. It might partly be his usage: he’s effective as a net-front presence and is still fourth in goals per hour, but has less opportunity to distribute the puck from that position.
With Horvat out, Markus Granlund has filled in on the first unit as the net-front presence and has scored three goals, though one of them coming after the power play expired. If the power play continues to produce with Granlund on the first unit, there will be a strong argument to be made that he should stay on the top unit, allowing Horvat to step in on the second unit.
Granlund struggled to produce offence early in the season, but seems to fit in nicely on the first power play unit. He’s been good on zone entries, can win puck battles along the boards, and combines a soft touch around the net with a dash of playmaking.
With his three recent goals, Granlund is now on-pace for 17 on the season, a hair off his 19 goals from last season. As much as the first power play unit might be better without Horvat, it might be the best way to get offensive production from Granlund as well.
As the games without Horvat start adding up, the power play will be worth keeping an eye on to see if it can continue to perform this well without him. At the very least, it should be eminently clear that the biggest reasons for the power play’s success can be chalked up to Brock Boeser.
