Jake Virtanen will be expected to play a big role for Team Canada at the World Junior tournament. Unlike last year, when he was more of a complementary piece, contributing with his physicality, this year he’ll be expected to carry some of the offensive load as a top-six forward.
That will be a switch from how his season has gone with the Canucks. His rookie year has been a bit of a disappointment so far, with just one goal and four points in 19 games before an injury took him out of the lineup. He’s showed his speed and strength, but hasn’t had many opportunities to use his shot, or hasn’t create them.
That’s not a huge concern long-term, as Virtanen just turned 19 four months ago and has plenty of time to reach his potential, but Canucks fans, along with management, were hoping for more.
What has gone unnoticed with his offensive struggles is just how good he’s been defensively. It’s an aspect of his game that the Canucks have likely missed a bit more than they realize and will continue to miss until he returns from the World Junior tournament.
One of the reasons his defensive play has likely gone unnoticed is that he has made a few big turnovers in the defensive zone, giving the puck away in dangerous situations. Virtanen also carries the label of “power forward,” a label that is often accompanied by another label: “defensive liability.” Those noticeable mistakes and reputation suggest that Virtanen can’t be trusted defensively at this point in his career.
It couldn’t be further from the truth.
When Virtanen is on the ice, the Canucks give up a significantly lower rate of shot attempts than with any other skater.
He has the lowest corsi against per 60 minutes (CA60) of any Canuck who has played more than one game this season: 45.81. He’s not just a little bit better, but massively better: the next closest Canuck is Brandon Sutter, at 49.86, then Chris Tanev at 49.95.
That means Virtanen has allowed 4 shot attempts fewer per 60 minutes of ice time than the next best Canuck.
Virtanen hasn’t done much offensively, with a very similar corsi for per 60 minutes (CF60) to Sutter at 48.38 and 48.42, respectively, but because of Virtanen’s far better defensive numbers, he actually leads the Canucks in corsi percentage right now, just ahead of Radim Vrbata.
Unlike Sutter and Tanev, Virtanen doesn’t play regularly against top competition, but he hasn’t been aggressively sheltered either. His zone starts have been about even between the offensive and defensive zones and, except when like many other Canucks youth he gets benched late in the third period, he gets rolled out for shifts against pretty much anyone, though his quality of competition metrics suggesting he mainly sees third lines.
Even still, those defensive numbers are remarkable. Given his reputation from Junior, he’s a surprisingly low-event player, with 94.19 total shot attempts for and against per 60 minutes when he is on the ice, the lowest on the Canucks.
The Canucks’ highest-event player, incidentally, who also has the highest CF60: Jared McCann.
For those not enthused by analysing shot attempts, Virtanen continues to hold serve when you look at shots on goal and scoring chances against, leading the Canucks in both. Virtanen, by all these metrics, is incredibly effective at preventing offensive opportunities for the opposition.
The only area where he doesn’t lead the Canucks defensively is in goals against and he is, in fact, one of the worst on the team in this area. With Virtanen on the ice at 5-on-5, the Canucks have given up 2.56 goals per 60 minutes, third worst on the team, with only Bo Horvat and Ben Hutton behind him.
The biggest reason for the difference is the Canucks’ save percentage with him on the ice: .889, easily the worst on the team, with only Horvat’s .902 coming close.
The general consensus among the analytics community is that forwards don’t drive save percentage, strongly suggesting that the Canucks’ inability to keep the puck out of their own net with Virtanen on the ice is not his fault. The same is true for Bo Horvat.
Sure, there might be individual instances when you can point to Virtanen to blame him for a goal against, but overall, Virtanen has been remarkably effective defensively. Perhaps it's his strength and ability to win board battles, keeping players to the outside. Perhaps it's his ability to throw a big hit in the neutral zone, creating turnovers and intimidating forwards into dumping the puck in rather than keeping possession.
Whatever the case, it should be a pleasant surprise that a prospect pegged as a goalscoring winger is far from one-dimensional, but is already a positive contributor at the defensive end of the ice at 19.
*All stats from war-on-ice.com
