Jim Benning appeared on TSN 1040 on Thursday to talk about Thatcher Demko, the draft, and a few other off-season topics.
The comment that got a lot of attention was when Benning admitted to spending hours with the NHL Draft Lottery Simulator and was disappointed that the Canucks never ended up in the top three. But ten attempts the next morning saw the Canucks get the top pick three times, which “gave him more hope.”
For some Canucks fans, this made Benning more relatable: he’s just like us, obsessively clicking the random number generator. For others, this was terrifying: the GM of an NHL team shouldn’t be “just like us” and should simply recognize the odds of selecting in whatever position in the draft and plan accordingly.
But when you actually listen to the interview, it’s immediately clear that Benning is joking around. The hosts are laughing uproariously at his comments and Benning himself even lets out a rare chuckle later on.
What I found more interesting was his comments about their draft list. Benning is asked about the possibility of trading if they win the lottery and he made it clear that he would listen to offers, but wouldn’t move easily.
“If we get the number one,” he said, “even if we’re in the top three, if we get the second or third picks, those are going to be really exciting players for us. It would have to take a real good offer for us to even think of moving one of those picks.”
Those top three picks have had fans salivating for months. At the top, Auston Matthews is the consensus first overall pick, a potential superstar centre with high-end offensive talent matched by steady two-way play. Then there’s the two Finns, Patrik Laine and Jesse Puljujarvi. Both combine size, speed, and skill and have some scouts making Mario Lemieux comparisons for Laine and Teemu Selanne for Puljujarvi.
So yes, it would take a “real good” offer, to say the least, to pry away the next potential Jonathan Toews, Lemieux, or Selanne.
But as Benning and most Canucks fans know from their dalliances with the Draft Lottery Simulator, there’s no guarantee the Canucks pick in the top three. Worst case scenario, they’ll pick sixth, where there isn’t as much consensus.
Benning and his scouts will further refine their list leading up to the draft, but one through six are probably set: “If we pick in the top six players, we’re going to get a real good player. I’m comfortable with the way the list looks right now.”
The biggest area of need for the Canucks is on defence, though they still lack enough future first liners to eventually replace the Sedins. They’re not going to worry about that too much if they end up in the first few picks.
“We’re going to take the best player available,” he said. “If we pick in the top three, for instance, or the top four, we’re taking the best player available. If all things are equal, if we think the forward on the board and the defence are equal, then we’ll choose the defenceman over the forward. But if we pick, I’d say in the top three or four, we’ll take the best player available.”
Instead of “best player available,” Benning may as well have just said “forward,” as it seemed pretty clear from the context that's what he meant. It was interesting to hear him twice correct himself from saying “top three” to “top four.” You have to think the top three, all forwards, are pretty much set on every draft board, but Benning has one more forward that he would pick before selecting a defenceman.
Who could it be? It could be Matthew Tkachuk, who had 107 points in 57 OHL games and 13 goals and 26 points (and counting) in 11 playoff games, albeit alongside the dominant Mitch Marner.
Or it could be Pierre-Luc Dubois, who was fifth in the QMJHL in goals and third in points with a 42-goal, 99-point campaign for Cape Breton. Or maybe Alexander Nylander, brother of William Nylander, or his teammate Michael McLeod, who McKeen’s Hockey ranks ahead of Puljujarvi?
Whatever the case, it seems clear that Benning and co. have four forwards on their draft list ahead of any defenceman. That means we shouldn’t expect to see the Canucks pick a defenceman with their first pick, whether Jakob Chychrun, Olli Juolevi, or someone else, unless they have the fifth or sixth pick.
