While numbers never lie, it’s sometimes difficult to figure out exactly what truth they’re telling. To help you out, Numbers Never Lie is a weekly look at the Canucks’ advanced statistics, and figuring out exactly what they have to say about the Canucks’ season and players.
Picture Alex Edler taking a shot. What do you see in your mind?
Do you see Edler loading up a slap shot, like the one that used to clock in at over 100 mph at Canucks skills competitions? Perhaps you imagine his more commonly-used wrist shot. Or, if you’re incredibly cynical, maybe you just picture him breaking his stick.
If you’re not quite that cynical, but still just a little bit, you might have pictured Edler shooting into someone’s shin pads or missing the net. There’s a general sense among Canucks fans that Edler misses the net or has his shots blocked more than average.
But I didn’t want just a general sense. This is Numbers Never Lie, so I need some numbers, even if they’re non-scientific. So, I conducted a Twitter poll to take the pulse of Canucks fans and see which Canucks defenceman they think is the worst at getting pucks through to the net.
Which of these four #Canucks defencemen would you say is the WORST at getting the puck on net?
— Daniel Wagner (@passittobulis) November 28, 2017
The results are not very surprising. While there is a contingent that contends Ben Hutton is the worst at getting the puck on net, 66% of the vote came in for Alex Edler as the worst, a solid 2/3rds majority.
Just 4% of the vote went to new Canuck Derrick Pouliot and Troy Stecher came in with the fewest votes, garnering just 3%.
Those are the numbers, now here’s the subjectivity: the replies. They seemed particularly telling, as some fans could barely believe I was asking the question at all.
It should be Alex Edler at 100%
— Nathan Armitage (@nathanarmitage) November 28, 2017
Is this even a poll that needs to be discussed. I feel like the answer is obvious. #willhewaive
— Ryan Hewitt (@RHewitt777) November 28, 2017
Alex Edler couldn't hit a soccer net...
— RANDAL YANDAL (@yandal_randal) November 28, 2017
Pre-Edler comeback Hutton was proving himself capable at winning this poll, but now that 23’s back... it’s not even close.
— Markus Meyer (@Markus_Meyer27) November 28, 2017
Should be 100 percent Edler, its insane how often his shots go into shinpads
— Ryan Day (@VANcanucks92) November 28, 2017
The answer is Edler, case closed, poll over.
— Chris Marganelli (@Hockeycustoms) November 28, 2017
But Jason Brough figured out something was up.
Is this a trick?
— Jason Brough (@JasonBroughTSN) November 28, 2017
It’s not exactly a trick. I just wanted a demonstration of something I already believed to be true: Canucks fans think that Alex Edler is really terrible at getting the puck on net.
Here’s the thing: I didn’t pick those four defencemen at random. Those four defencemen have the lowest percentage of their shot attempts get through to the net. It’s just that Alex Edler isn’t at the bottom of that list and neither is Ben Hutton. In fact, they go exactly in that order.
All data is via the indispensible corsica.hockey. iSF/60 stands for Individual Shots For per 60, aka. shots on goal per hour by an individual player.
This chart is shot attempts in all situations, so it includes special teams as well as 3-on-3 overtime. I did that to widen the sample size, but I will look specifically at 5-on-5 and power play situations from last season a bit further down.
It’s intriguing to see a defensive defenceman like Chris Tanev at the top of the chart, but it’s not too surprising. Tanev only attempts a shot when he has a clear opportunity, so a very low percentage of his shots get blocked. At least, that's a decent hypothesis. It doesn't hold up when you look at last season.
I also included the league average so far this season. All four fall below average in the percentage of their shot attempts that are on net, so it is true that Edler has been below average this season at getting shots on target, but he has been better than Hutton, Stecher, and Pouliot. In fact, Edler is above average in shot rate: he averages 5.64 shots on goal per 60 minutes of ice time, highest on the Canucks.
But there is one statistic there that does demonstrate the frustration many Canucks fans have with Edler: percentage of shots blocked. 44.44% of Edler’s shot attempts this season have been blocked, the highest on the team. In fact, it’s the ninth highest percentage of shots blocked in the entire NHL among defencemen with at least 15 shots on goal.
So, this season Edler has had his shots blocked quite a bit, the same percentage that get through to the net. He hasn’t, however, missed the net very often, which has been the biggest issue for Troy Stecher this season.
With the blocked shot percentage in mind, the criticism is understandable, perhaps even warranted if you consider a blocked shot worse than a missed shot. But that’s in a small sample size from just the first 23 Canucks games this season. Consider this: Stecher’s percentages come from just 21 shot attempts. Edler’s come from just 54.
Edler’s detractors don’t claim this to be just a temporary issue, however. They suggest it has been going on for some time. So let’s expand the sample size by looking at all of last season.
Suddenly we see that the tables have turned. Hutton and Edler, the two most maligned for being unable to get shots on target, led all Canucks’ defencemen in percentage of shot attempts on goal and were the only two above the league average in that category. Both also had an above average percentage of shots blocked, but neither excessively so.
This is, however, only looking at 5-on-5. In that situation, Hutton and Edler were above average at getting their shot attempts on net. Does that change when we look at the power play?
Yes. Yes it does.
This is where the biggest complaints come in and they’re definitely warranted. Last season, Edler was one of the worst defencemen in the NHL at getting his shots on net. He managed to get just 35.82% of his power play shot attempts on net last season, with 41.79% getting blocked.
Here’s the surprise, however: Edler was still more effective than Stecher. Just one defenceman played 100+ minutes on the power play and had a lower percentage of shots on goal: John Klingberg.
Ben Hutton, on the other hand, was significantly better at getting shots through traffic and on net on the power play. Getting 50% of his shot attempts on target lands him in the top-20 among NHL defencemen with at least 100+ minutes on the power play last season.
Right now, Hutton isn’t even on the power play, even as he was the most effective last season at getting shots through from the point.
One intriguing note: Edler still led all three defencemen in terms of shot rate: his 10.55 shots on goal per hour on the power play last season was still a little below league average, but it was ahead of both Hutton and Stecher. Even as a higher percentage of his shot attempts didn’t hit the net, he took so many shot attempts that he still had a lot of shots on goal. That arguably isn’t a good thing, as his high number of blocked shot attempts suggests that he should have been passing off on those opportunities.
So, it seems that Edler was above average at getting shots on net at 5-on-5, but well below average on the power play last season. This season, he is following the same pattern. Edler has 12 shot attempts on the power play so far, with just 4 of them on net: 33.33%.
At 5-on-5, however, Edler has hit the net with 18 of his 38 shot attempts: 47.37%. Those two percentages are nearly identical to last year’s numbers.
One conclusion we could draw is that Edler himself is not actually that bad at getting shots on net, certainly not the worst on the Canucks. Instead, it seems to be an issue unique to the power play.
With the Canucks’ power play 8-for-19 in their last seven games, it’s unlikely that we’ll see any significant changes to their power play personnel. But if they hit a slump, moving a defenceman more effective at getting the puck through traffic to the top power play unit to replace Edler might be the best move. My vote: the much-maligned Ben Hutton.
