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Should the Canucks draft Adam Boqvist?

The biggest boom or bust prospect at the top of the draft could be worth the risk.
Adam Boqvist before a Brynas IF game in the SHL.

After the Vegas Golden Knights made the Stanley Cup Finals without a marquee defenceman, some have downplayed the importance of having a number one defenceman. Here’s the issue: while the Golden Knights didn’t have any big names on their blue line, they still got a lot of point production from their defence.

The Golden Knights had 37 goals and 180 points from their defence, and their 112 primary points were good for 7th in the NHL. Colin Miller led the way with 10 goals and 41 points, but Nate Schmidt was not far behind with 36 points and Shea Theodore put up 29 points in just 61 games.

The Canucks, on the other hand, had just 70 primary points from their defence, ahead of only the Detroit Red Wings. The bottom 10 teams in primary points from defencemen all missed the playoffs. In order to win in the NHL, particularly as the pace of the game gets faster, you need puck-moving, point-producing defencemen.

Winning the draft lottery would have been huge for the Canucks, not just because they would get a superstar talent, but because Rasmus Dahlin would have directly addressed their biggest need. With the seventh overall pick, however, the Canucks can still get a fantastic offensive defenceman; the issue is that defenceman will come with more significant flaws than Dahlin.

One of those options for the Canucks is Adam Boqvist, the second-best Swedish defenceman in this draft. TSN’s Craig Button has the Canucks picking Boqvist in his mock draft and the vast majority of draft rankings have him as a surefire top-10 pick.

Boqvist has dynamic offensive ability thanks to his elite skating and skill with the puck. He can be a gamebreaker all on his own and is an ideal power play quarterback, with great offensive instincts and creativity.

He has even been compared to Erik Karlsson, which is a bit of an unfair expectation to put on a 17-year-old kid. After all, Karlsson is arguably the best defenceman in the NHL, with six 60+ point seasons in his career.

Here’s the really scary part: the comparisons to Karlsson actually make a lot of sense.

It’s there in his style of play: Boqvist loves to rush the puck up the ice, attacking opposing teams through the neutral zone and putting defenders on their heels. His skating and skill are also reminiscent of Karlsson. Several scouting reports describe his skill with the puck as akin to a first-line forward, rather than a typical offensive defenceman, and he can beat defenders one-on-one to create dangerous scoring chances.

Lile Karlsson, he has superb vision and passing ability, picking apart defences on the power play, or making great breakout passes through the neutral zone.

They’re also listed a mere centimetre apart in height. Karlsson is listed at 191 lbs now, but was a willowy 165 lbs when he was drafted, the same weight as Boqvist.

The two can also be compared statistically. Boqvist’s numbers in the Superelit league in Sweden are not particularly impressive, even though he led all Superelit defencemen in goals per game and points per game. His points per game is nearly identical, however, to Karlsson’s in his draft year.

Boqvist had 14 goals and 24 points in 25 games, while Karlsson also led all Superelit defencemen in his draft year with 13 goals and 37 points in 38 games. That’s 0.96 points per game for Boqvist, and 0.97 for Karlsson. They each had a cup of coffee in the SHL in their draft years, but didn’t put up much in the way of points. Boqvist had just one assist in 15 games, while Karlsson managed one goal in seven games.

It’s important to remember that even playing 15 games in the SHL as a 17-year-old is a good sign. Boqvist doesn't even turn 18 until mid-August, making him one of the youngest players in the draft. Rasmus Dahlin’s 20 points in 41 games is truly exceptional and shouldn’t really be used as a standard for other top prospects.

While Boqvist wasn’t able to step up his game against men in the SHL, he has done so internationally. He was the best defenceman at the Ivan Hlinka Cup, finishing second in tournament scoring with eight points in five games. He was only 16 at the time of the tournament, which started a week before his 17th birthday.

Boqvist was also named the best defenceman at the World Under-18 Championship, with three goals and six points in six games.

To continue the Karlsson comparison, he grabbed ahold of the spotlight with a standout performance at the World Under-18 Championship in his draft year, tallying seven points in six games. Like Boqvist, he was named the tournament’s best defenceman.

There are differences, of course, both positive and negative. Boqvist has a better shot than Karlsson at the same age, for instance, and that’s reflected in his higher goal totals. Boqvist can rip a wrist shot top corner or send a hard and low slap shot on net through traffic from the point, and has a wicked release on his snap shot. International Scouting Services ranks Boqvist’s shot as second best in the draft behind Oliver Wahlstrom.

Then there is the negative: Boqvist is nowhere near as good as Karlsson was defensively.

The opinions of scouts appear to be divided when it comes to Boqvist in the defensive zone. One report suggests he’s too aggressive and chases the puck; another suggests he’s too passive and waits too much for the play to come to him. There are some scouts who say his defensive issues have been overstated and that the main issue is a lack of size that will sort itself out as he adds strength over the next few years.

In the neutral zone, Boqvist is just fine defensively. He makes great reads and can pick off passes to quickly turn the play the other way. On puck retrievals, Boqvist is superb: thanks to his excellent skating and vision, he can quickly get to the puck and transition the puck up ice.

The issues start when the puck stays in the defensive zone a little longer. He struggles to win puck battles along the boards and in front of the net. The times where he’s over-aggressive or over-passive in his defensive approach could be seen as attempts to compensate for this inability to win battles. With his excellent hockey IQ and ability to read the play, Boqvist should be better defensively, so there’s reason to believe that with a little more time and size, he’ll be able to address this shortcoming.

It’s his defensive issues that make him the most boom or bust prospect at the top of the draft. Where Noah Dobson has a high floor and a high ceiling, Boqvist has an even higher ceiling, but a significantly lower floor.

If Boqvist develops the defensive side of his game without compromising the thrilling dynamic offensive side, he could be more than just a number one defenceman: he could be one of the best defencemen in the NHL. If not, he could be a power play specialist that a coach feels he can’t trust at even-strength.

Clearly, Boqvist won’t be Karlsson, but the comparison is a little too apt to ignore. At the very least, it should assuage fears over his numbers in the Superelit or questions about his size. Boqvist has the skill and determination to make teams believe more in the boom than the bust.

Boqvist made a positive impression at the NHL Scouting Combine, where he was forthright about the the issues in his game that need to be addressed and disclosed to NHL teams that he has dyslexia.

“When I’m reading something, I don’t remember it,” he said in an interview with Postmedia. “When I write something, the words don’t come out right.”

On the ice, however, Boqvist seems poised to write his own destiny.