Pretty much everyone knew going into this season that the Canucks were going to be bad. Most of us, apart from USA Today and EA Sports, didn’t expect them to be quite that bad.
There are numerous reasons for why everything went wrong — the aging Sedins continued to falter, the youth weren’t ready or able to take up the reins, the power play was horribad, the defence didn’t do enough offensively — but it’s hard to ignore two key components of the Canucks’ collapse: injuries and coaching.
The Canucks led the league in man games lost to injury in 2016-17. That number is a bit skewed: a big chunk of that comes from season-ending injuries to Derek Dorsett, Anton Rodin, and Erik Gudbranson and the Canucks shut down a number of players at the end of the season that, if they were still in the playoff hunt, likely would have stayed in the lineup.
That said, injuries were still a major issue. Important players like Chris Tanev, Alex Edler, and Jannik Hansen missed significant portions of the season.
Another significant issue was Willie Desjardins and Doug Lidster’s stubbornness in sticking with lines and pairings that were counterintuitive. Being counterintuitive isn’t a bad thing in and of itself — splitting up Ryan Kesler and Alex Burrows and putting Burrows with the Sedins was a very counterintuitive move on the part of Alain Vigneault — but when those decisions don’t work, sticking with them is a serious problem.
Would the Canucks have won more games if Desjardins had committed to lines and pairings that made more sense and worked well? Perhaps. Not enough to get them into playoff position, but the Canucks would have been a little less rage-inducing to watch.
Let’s take a look at the lines and pairings that performed best together last season. I’m putting these together based on a few different metrics: corsi, fenwick, shots, and goals.
Forward Lines
Fourth line:
Michael Chaput - Brendan Gaunce - Jack Skille
This fourth line caught me off guard during the season with how effective they were. In fact, in terms of corsi, they were the Canucks best line at 58.39%. Usage needs to be kept in mind: they played limited minutes and were rarely up against the best the opposition had to offer. In addition, if you’re looking for offensive production, don’t look here. But if you want a good low-event fourth line that doesn’t give up anything defensively, this was the Canucks best bet last season.
I credit a lot of this to Gaunce, who was solid defensively all season, but his best linemates all season were Chaput and Skille and he never quite found his groove away from them, particularly struggling when placed on a line with Brandon Sutter and Jayson Megna.
Third line:
Jayson Megna - Brandon Sutter - Markus Granlund
Sutter and Megna, however, thrived with Markus Granlund. Granlund the Lesser, as I’ve come to think of him, won me over as the season progressed, playing a sound possession game that brought the best out of Sutter, who cratered the possession statistics of everyone else he played with.
Megna is a contentious player, but that comes mostly from how he was used rather than who he is. On a third line, he could be effective with his speed. He just needed a possession driver like Granlund with him. The trio together posted a 54.59% corsi and allowed the second fewest shots on goal per 60 minutes (behind Chaput, Gaunce, and Skille).
Another option would be to replace Megna with Loui Eriksson, but he gets a nod on a different line coming up.
Second line:
Sven Baertschi - Bo Horvat - Brock Boeser
It was a limited amount of time, just 80 minutes at 5-on-5, but what we saw out of this trio was enough to suggest they’ll be a solid second line next season with leanings towards becoming a half-decent first line. They posted a 51.91% corsi together and seemed to immediately find chemistry.
This is the line that has the most potential volatility. Reid Boucher was respectable on the wing with Baertschi and Horvat, but Granlund, Eriksson, and Nikolay Goldobin could be rotated in as well.
First line:
Daniel Sedin - Henrik Sedin - Loui Eriksson
I went into this in detail last month: http://www.vancourier.com/pass-it-to-bulis/who-should-travis-green-play-with-the-sedins-1.16958445 Eriksson and Granlund were heads and shoulders above all other Sedin linemates last season. The issue is that Sutter played better with Granlund than he did with Eriksson. If the Canucks are keeping Sutter around, it makes sense to keep Granlund with him and give Eriksson another chance with the Sedins.
Alternately, the Canucks could play both Eriksson and Granlund with Sutter and try a young player like Goldobin, Boeser, or *gasp* Jake Virtanen on the wing with the Sedins.
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You may have noticed two names absent from these lines: Alex Burrows and Jannik Hansen. That’s partly intentional, but only partly.
Burrows played a large chunk of the season with Horvat and Baertschi and the three were an effective line together. But with him traded away, I went with Boeser on their wing instead. Also, Boeser posted a better corsi with Horvat and Baertschi than Burrows did.
As for Hansen, he had a bizarre season with the Canucks. In terms of producing shots and offensive chances, he improved almost every line he played on. But the lines he was on also gave up a ton of shots and chances. As a result, the possession statistics of his lines were almost always terrible. There was something odd going on with Hansen and how he was used and I haven’t been able to pinpoint exactly what it was.
Defence Pairings
Here’s where the Canucks’ deficiencies really become apparent. They had just three defence pairings that played 100+ 5-on-5 minutes together that posted a corsi above 50% and two of them were third pairings that mostly played sheltered minutes. That makes picking out their best combinations tricky.
That’s especially true when it comes to Troy Stecher, who I’m going to leave out entirely. He has incredible potential, but he mostly played with Alex Edler last season and was deployed like a top pairing defenceman last season, a role for which he was quite ready. With Edler’s better half clearly being Tanev, that ended up bumping Stecher off the list.
Third pairing:
Alex Biega - Nikita Tryamkin
or
Luca Sbisa - Philip Larsen
These were the two pairings with the best corsi for the Canucks last season and Tryamkin and Larsen are both gone. With Larsen, it’s no great loss. As much as he posted good results overall, they still gave up a lot of scoring chances.
Biega and Tryamkin, however, was an interesting pairing. They put up a solid 52.64% corsi together and were reasonable effective in moving the puck out of the defensive zone.
With Tryamkin gone, the Canucks best option is probably to put Erik Gudbranson on the third pairing with one of Sbisa, Biega, Andrey Pedan, or Olli Juolevi.
Second pairing:
Ben Hutton - Erik Gudbranson
Hutton and Gudbranson had some much-publicized struggles together early in the season http://theprovince.com/sports/hockey/nhl/vancouver-canucks/hutton-gudbranson-disconnection-needs-immediate-attention, but by the end of the season the Canucks essentially proved that other pairings were worse.
Let’s be clear: this isn’t a particularly good pairing, but it’s the best the Canucks could do last season for a second pairing.
It would have been nice to see how Hutton and Stecher played together last season, but they barely played 48 5-on-5 minutes together. That would be the first thing I would try in the pre-season: a top pairing that eats up minutes and a more sheltered second pairing that is expected to contribute more offense.
First pairing:
Alex Edler - Chris Tanev
I already went into this in detail http://www.vancourier.com/pass-it-to-bulis/is-now-the-right-time-to-trade-chris-tanev-1.18492081, but Edler and Tanev should have been the Canucks’ top pairing all of last season. The only reason they weren’t is because of how committed they were to Edler playing with Stecher. They were the only other pairing above 50% corsi and they faced tougher competition. They also led the Canucks in shot differential percentage.
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So what does this suggest for next season? Assuming no personnel changes — and there surely will be trades and signings, not to mention whoever gets picked in the expansion draft — here is what I would see being the Canucks’ most effective lineup:
Sedin - Sedin - Eriksson
Baertschi - Horvat - Boeser
Megna - Sutter - Granlund
Chaput - Gaunce - Skille
Edler - Tanev
Hutton - Stecher
Sbisa - Gudbranson
Pedan/Biega
