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It takes confidence bordering on self-delusion to be a professional athlete, so it should come as no surprise that Henrik Sedin identified “Making the playoffs” as the only thing that would make the coming season a success for the Canucks.
Considering the Canucks finished 29th overall last season and 28th the season before that, Henrik is setting the bar remarkably high. The Canucks are currently mid-rebuild, with the Sedins trending downward and the Canucks’ youth still not quite ready to inherit the team. Making the playoffs may not be outside the realm of possibility, but it is teetering right on the edge.
Here are just six of the many things that would have to go right for the Canucks to make the playoffs:
Stay Healthy
When a team’s playoff chances are this slim, bad injury luck can be disastrous. Henrik Sedin said, “I think injuries will be less of a factor this year because of the depth we have,” but to make the playoffs they need health more than depth.
Special Teams Turnaround
The Canucks won’t be a powerhouse at even-strength, so will depend on improvement from their 29th and 28th-ranked power play and penalty kill.
New faces like Thomas Vanek, Sam Gagner, Michael Del Zotto, and assistant coach Newell Brown will help — Brown oversaw the Canucks’ power play during its heights five years ago — but are they enough?
A Starting Goaltender or Two
Neither Jacob Markstrom nor Anders Nilsson have ever been a number one goaltender in the NHL, but at least one of them will have to do so with Ryan Miller taking his talents to Huntington Beach. If neither goaltender can handle the heavier workload, the playoffs aren’t even a remote possibility.
Successful Succession Plan
It’s time for the Sedins to step back to the second line and a new first line to take their place That most likely means Sven Baertschi, Bo Horvat, and rookie Brock Boeser.
The linchpin here is Boeser, who has star potential. It’s asking a lot of the 20-year-old, but if the Canucks want to make the playoffs, they need Boeser to be a contender for Rookie-of-the-Year.
Veteran Bounceback
The Canucks highest-paid players, Loui Eriksson and the Sedins, don’t need to be first-line players if the youth step up. If the Sedins want to get back to the playoffs before they retire, however, they and Eriksson need to step up with some secondary scoring.
Pacific Division Crash and Burn
Even if everything goes right for the Canucks, they might still miss the playoffs. What they need is a lot to go wrong for their Pacific Division rivals.
The Oilers have star power, but an injury to Connor McDavid could derail their season. The inconsistent Mike Smith in net might douse the Flames. The Kings missed the playoffs in 2 of their last 3 seasons and the Sharks have an aging core. The Ducks look impervious, so maybe avian flu could sweep through their locker room?
If all the right things go wrong for the rest of the division, the Canucks could step into the gap and actually make the playoffs.
But probably not.
Stick-Taps and Glove-Drops
Stick-tap to new Canucks head coach Travis Green for completely ignoring the size of his players’ contracts as he puts together the lineup. Aside from the Sedins and Bo Horvat, Loui Eriksson and Brandon Sutter are the two highest paid forwards on the team, but judging from practice and the preseason, they’ll start the season on the third and fourth lines, respectively. It sends a firm message that your quality of play on the ice is far more important than your contract off the ice.
I’m dropping the gloves with the Pittsburgh Penguins who picked the worst possible time to affirm they were going to accept their invitation to the White House to visit President Donald Trump. While Trump ridiculed (black) NFL and NBA players, the NHL, accidentally or otherwise, aligned themselves with Trump in the name of “not taking a stand.” The timing of the Penguins statement turned a potential unifying moment across professional sports leagues into another example of how tone-deaf the hockey world can be when it comes to social issues.
Big Numbers
7 - Brock Boeser led the Canucks in scoring during the preseason, putting up 4 goals and 7 points in 5 games. Including his nine-game stint last season, Boeser has 8 goals in 14 games since signing with the Canucks.
.827 - While Jacob Markstrom will start the season as the number one goaltender, Anders Nilsson might be the better of the two. His save percentage on high-difficulty shots over the last three seasons is .827, above the NHL average, while Markstrom’s is .798, well below average. A goaltender’s save percentage on high-difficulty shots is generally a strong indicator of how they’ll perform in the future.
59.72% - Last season, the Canucks won 59.72% of their power play faceoffs, good for fifth in the NHL. But they also had one of the worst power plays, finishing 29th in the league. Brandon Sutter, a faceoff ace who doesn’t put up points on the power play, was third on the Canucks in power play ice time, just behind the Sedins. These three things might be related.
