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Opinion: Forget a snap B.C. election - expect a shuffle

Forget about a snap election call in the coming year. Instead, keep an eye out for a looming cabinet shuffle. That much was made clear to me by Premier John Horgan in our annual year-end interview on Global.
John Horgan
B.C. Premier John Horgan.

Forget about a snap election call in the coming year.

Instead, keep an eye out for a looming cabinet shuffle.

That much was made clear to me by Premier John Horgan in our annual year-end interview on Global. While he admits he cannot control how the three-member Green Party caucus votes on confidence matters in the legislature, any move to force an early election will most certainly not come from his actions.

“I am a minority government,” Horgan said. “I take every day as a good day and do the best I can. And it also gives my colleagues a sense of confidence that we’re here to do as much as we possibly can do in this mandate. But we don’t know what will happen.”

When pressed if there could be an election call on his own “initiative,” Horgan’s response was a resolute “no.”

Still, his plan - for now - to run out the entire mandate (the next election is not required to be held until October 2021) isn’t stopping him from doing something premiers and prime ministers generally do before such a vote. 

That would be asking his cabinet team about their long-term goals. It’s the kind of conversation that generally precedes a cabinet shuffle.

“We need to retool,” he said, which struck me as a frank admission that his government needs a bit of an energy boost. “We’re at the halfway point. Some members are not going to be running again. So I’m going to have those conversations over the Christmas break and then we’ll probably see some changes in the New Year. And I think that’s appropriate. We’ve had a good run.”

He singled out Finance Minister Carole James and Health Minister Adrian Dix for special praise, which would seem to suggest they won’t be leaving their portfolios in the looming shuffle. 

“I bring up Adrian and Carole because they’re former (NDP) leaders,” he said. “I can’t remember a leader that’s had the blessing of having two of his predecessors as his strongest allies.”

Although Horgan insists he has a strong, talented team in cabinet, he also is mindful that some changes are needed.

Not surprisingly, Horgan would not expand further. I’m reluctant to bruise the egos of any sitting cabinet ministers by guessing which are the likeliest to be shuffled out. It is much more fun to speculate which backbenchers may be in line for a big jump in their pay grades.

My best bets for those getting a promotion to cabinet include several MLAs who represent ridings considered crucial to the NDP’s chances of being re-elected: Bowinn Ma in North Vancouver-Lonsdale, Ravi Kahlon in Delta North, Bob D’Eith in Maple Ridge-Mission and Ronna Rae-Leonard in Courtenay-Comox. And don’t count out veteran MLA Nic Simons from Powell River-Sunshine Coast.

Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global BC.