A year ago it was the time of an auspicious occasion for our city’s political class — the swearing in of the new city council at the Southeast False Creek Community Centre. In spite of the costly and downright testy election campaign that had just concluded, everybody in the room was all-smiles.
Even the incumbent Vision Vancouver council members seemed pleased for they had held power at city hall, the most important prize of all.
Nearly $6 million had been spent collectively by the Vision and NPA campaigns, but the outcome was almost exactly the same. Robertson was still mayor, and the only new face on council belonged to the NPA’s plucky former park commissioner, Melissa De Genova.
After losing control of the park and school boards, Vision seems determined to regain its mojo. Its political machine has been whirring like it’s on high-octane fuel, and supported apparently by loads of financial contributions.
As a political organization Vision Vancouver operates on a level never seen before in Canadian local government. They are properly staffed, constantly communicating, continuously organizing, plotting and finding new ways to woo supporters.
By contrast the NPA and Greens seem positively docile a year after the Vancouver election. The sound of a pin dropping would be deafening by comparison to the amount of actual political organizing either has attempted since the election.
It’s as if they are overconfident.
Indeed, after 10 years in power any political dynasty runs the risk of losing. Brian Mulroney, Gordon Campbell, Jean Chretien and, recently, Stephen Harper, were all shown the door by the electorate after a decade in power. And so it will probably be after 10 years with Gregor Robertson as mayor.
Vision Vancouver is not preparing to loosen its grip on running the city any time soon, however.
First of all, the party seems to have been given new life with the election of an ally in the Prime Minister’s office. But Justin Trudeau represents a mixed blessing for Gregor Robertson, and the mayor probably knows it. For the past seven years in office he could always blame Stephen Harper when something did not go his way.
If relations with Ottawa are as rosy as Robertson likes to boast, then he can never complain again about being shortchanged by the federal government. If he cannot deliver now on his big promises on homelessness and housing, the environment and economic growth, he likely never will.
This leaves open the matter of who will ultimately succeed Robertson as Vision’s leader. As indicated in this column and by others, there are only two people seen to be as credible candidates to grab the baton: councillors Raymond Louie and Andrea Reimer.
Louie’s ascendance from the floor of a unionized print shop to city council, then on to Metro Vancouver as vice-chair, and making his way through the pecking order to become president of the Federation of Canadian Municipalities has been impressive.
It’s the reason he earned the endorsement of former mayor Larry Campbell early on as his choice for a “future mayor.”
His colleague Reimer seems to have a leg up on Louie when it comes to her unquestioned loyalty to the environmental movement at the heart of Vision’s ideology.
She even identifies as a former Green Party school trustee on her Twitter profile, despite the fact relations between Vision and the current Vancouver Green caucus are decidedly frosty.
Some have commented Reimer comports herself in a more statesmanlike manner in council. Long gone are the snarky remarks — in public at least — about the weight of provincial cabinet ministers.
Her closeness to Robertson is well known, which leads many to think she is the favoured candidate of the Vision establishment to succeed him.
After more than 130 years since its incorporation, could Andrea Reimer be the first woman to become Vancouver mayor? Given the power behind the mayor’s chair, no one should put long odds on it happening.
But keep in mind that three years is an eternity in politics. There is still some time — though not much — for the NPA to rev up its engine and for the eco-friendly Greens to get some wind in their sails.
@MikeKlassen
