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Jim Benning wouldn’t be doing his job if he didn’t kick the tires on Erik Karlsson

There are very few certainties in life, but you can add one to the list that includes death, taxes, and Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown : Erik Karlsson won’t be playing in a Canucks jersey next season.
Erik Karlsson at Ottawa Senators practice

There are very few certainties in life, but you can add one to the list that includes death, taxes, and Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown: Erik Karlsson won’t be playing in a Canucks jersey next season.

One of the big stories of the 2018 NHL off-season was expected to be a blockbuster trade involving Karlsson, arguably the best offensive defenceman in the NHL, if not the best defenceman overall. Since the start of the summer, however, Karlsson trade rumours have gone from a roiling boil to a slow simmer, with little news from the Ottawa Senators or any potential trade destinations.

Then Elliotte Friedman lobbed some insider information into the mid-August doldrums like a frag grenade and, with no Steve Rogers around to leap on it, it exploded all over Canucks nation.

According to Friedman, trade talks have picked up and Karlsson is likely to end up in the Western Conference, which isn’t too surprising: you can imagine the Senators aren’t keen on regularly facing a motivated Karlsson.

What is surprising is the specific team that he mentioned as being interested in a Karlsson trade: the Vancouver Canucks.

 

 

It didn’t take long for the denials to come out from the Canucks camp, as you might expect. Jim Benning has been fined for tampering in the past after talking about his interest in a player currently signed to another team and he’s learned his lesson: Benning would deny it whether he had talked to the Senators or not.

 

 

In direct quotes, however, Benning talked around the issue as much as possible.

“Things have been pretty quiet,” said Benning on TSN 1040. “I’m not moving any of our good, young players. The Petterssons, Quinn Hughes, Demko, Juolevi, Kole Lind, any of these young players that I think we’re going to win with.”

There are numerous reasons why Karlsson won’t end up on the Canucks and you can start with his limited no-trade clause. At this point, Karlsson can submit a ten-team no-trade list: ten teams to which he will not accept a trade.

Imagine for a moment that you are Erik Karlsson, one of the best defencemen in the world, but you’ve been playing your entire career for a franchise that can’t seem to build a legitimate Stanley Cup contender around you. You’re nearing the end of your prime, if not exiting it already, and you’ve been out of the second round of the playoffs just once.

Now, imagine being asked if you’re willing to accept a trade to a team like Vancouver. A team that has missed the playoffs for three straight years, just lost the two best players in their franchise history, is depending on untested rookies to make their top-six semi-viable, and is coming back with the same defence corps that put up fewer primary points last season then every team except the Red Wings.

You better believe that Vancouver is one of the ten teams on Karlsson’s list.

There are also plenty of reasons from the Canucks’ perspective why a Karlsson trade wouldn’t make sense.

It’s likely that the cost to acquire Karlsson will be significant future assets: blue-chip prospects, first-round draft picks, and/or young roster players. For all the talk of the Canucks’ reinvigorated prospect pool, the truth is that they really don’t have the assets to spare for a trade, particularly the elite assets that the Senators will be seeking.

Benning made it clear that his 2019 first round pick is untouchable: “That’s a non-starter. I’m not trading those picks in next year’s draft.”

“Teams talk about taking our young players or picks,” said Benning to Ben Kuzma. “We have some depth in our prospect pool, but our future is about Brock Boeser, Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes, Thatcher Demko, and Olli Juolevi — I’ve not lost sight of that.”

The Senators would surely ask for something like Quinn Hughes and next year’s first round pick. As Benning says, that’s a non-starter.

Trading for Karlsson is the type of deal a contending team might make, giving up future potential for present glory. A team that is currently within a window to win a Stanley Cup could justify sending the Senators picks and prospects to put themselves over the top.

That’s not the Canucks, who will be hard-pressed to even challenge for a playoff spot in the coming season. It simply doesn’t make sense for the Canucks to sell the farm for a shot at the Stanley Cup when that shot would have to be with a sniper rifle over a World Record distance in hurricane conditions.

To top it off, Karlsson only has one year left on his contract and would need to immediately negotiate an extension with whatever team he was traded to.

Let’s face it: as good as Karlsson is and as excellent as it would be to see him play for the Canucks, it just doesn’t make any sense.

Even with all that in mind, of course Jim Benning should call Pierre Dorion to ask about Karlsson, if he hasn’t already. Why wouldn’t he?

Trades happen all the time where the return is significantly smaller than you might expect and fans of teams around the league ask, “Why wasn’t my team in on that deal?”

Perhaps the prospects involved aren’t as blue-chip as you might expect, or the draft picks are for 2020 instead of 2019, or the roster players in the deal are expendable; if there’s a chance the price wouldn’t cost the Canucks the future, Benning needs to know.

That means calling or texting Dorion, checking in to see if the asking price has shifted, or if more or fewer teams are involved in the trade discussions, or any other information that might help Benning do his job.

There’s another reason why the Canucks could be in on Karlsson trade talks: they’ve got the cap space to facilitate a trade to another team. If a team interested in Karlsson needs to shed salary to make Karlsson fit under the salary cap, the Canucks could be the third party in a three-way trade.

It would behoove the rebuilding Canucks to take a salary dump in exchange for a prospect, draft pick, or both. Maybe that means taking on Jason Spezza or maybe the Senators would also be looking to get rid of the Bobby Ryan contract as part of this deal. The Canucks would be a solid fit.

Even if the Canucks don’t end up involved in the Erik Karlsson trade, Benning should absolutely be talking to the Senators about the possibility.