The Vancouver Canucks are bottom feeders. They currently sit 28th in the league. Their 22 points give them just a three-point cushion over fellow lottery pick contenders Colorado and Arizona.
Yet, inconceivably, Vancouver is also just three points out of the last wild card spot in the Western Conference.
That revelation, coupled with a handful of recent exciting wins, have some Canucks fans and commentators speculating that they’re primed for a playoff run in the spring.
I can’t exactly blame them. Three points is nothing. Why, string together a couple of win streaks and suddenly the Canucks are looking at an extended season, proving pre-season pundits wrong and refilling the depleted coffers of Vancouver’s ownership group.
And even better, if Vancouver suddenly gets all ducks in a row, they might surprise everyone with a deep playoff run.
What’s not to like?
The problem is, if the Canucks somehow get all their ducks in a row, they will end up in a row with the Ducks. Of Anaheim. Or the San Jose Sharks, or the Chicago Blackhawks. Or the Los Angeles Kings.
At this point in the season, there is nothing more damaging to the future of this team than hope. At least, hope of the short-term variety.
On Thursday, Vancouver hosted the Ducks. With them, the Canucks also welcomed into Rogers Arena a thick cloud of negativity as well as a healthy dose of reality. It was ugly.
The Canucks were outcoached by debatably one of the worst coaches in the league, Randy Carlyle, and outplayed by a strong, fast and deep Anaheim lineup (which included former Canucks Kevin Bieksa and Ryan “The Boos Only Make Him Stronger” Kesler.)
For all the wins they string together, for all the unexpected points they squeeze out of teams like the Minnesota Wild, they will still face a behemoth in the first round. Because that’s what a wild card spot gets you.
By shooting for the playoffs, Vancouver likely mortgages a high pick for four-to-seven extra games. Probably four.
What will they need to make the playoffs?
Vancouver has 58 games remaining in the regular season. Last season, Minnesota snuck into the playoffs with 87 points. That’s lower than usual, but we’ll use that as our benchmark.
With 22 points, Vancouver needs 1.12 points per game for the rest of the season. In easier terms, that means around 32 more wins and an overtime loss.
Or, following Minnesota’s blueprint, they could manage 28 more wins plus nine overtime or shootout losses.
So Vancouver needs to win at least every second game for the rest of the season to get close to the playoffs. And they’ll have to gut out a lot of overtimes along the way too.
Even then a postseason berth is unlikely. Since the start of the wild card format, only two teams have snuck into the postseason with fewer than 40 wins. Minnesota, with 38 in 2015-16, and Detroit, with 39 in 2013-14. So chances are you’d need a slightly better record than that to contend.
Could Vancouver do it? Definitely. There are indications that the group has underachieved so far.
The team’s Corsi For stands at 50.11%, which is middle of the pack. That’s considerably higher than the Colorado Avalanche or the Arizona Coyotes (the 'Yotes, incidentally, sit dead last in the league in this category.)
It’s also worth taking a look at Vancouver’s PDO, which combines a team’s shooting percentage with its save percentage in an effort to identify lucky and unlucky clubs. Vancouver sits last in the NHL with a PDO of 0.967. That indicates that the Canucks are underperforming so far, and that they have a good opportunity to become more competitive later in the season.
Or, it could mean that Vancouver is far and away the least talented squad in the league. One should note, however, that several clubs known to be fairly thin on talent are ranked much higher than Vancouver. Arizona, for example, sits 22nd with a PDO of 0.991 right now.
The Canucks have had several key injuries that could be impacting their competitiveness so far this season. The losses of Jannik Hansen, Alex Edler and Chris Tanev really took a chunk out of the lineup. Once healthy, it’s entirely possible Vancouver holds its own against tougher conference rivals.
What’s more, the Canucks have 10 wins already this season. Prorated for the remainder of the season, that puts them close to that 40 win threshold.
Let’s not and say we did
Vancouver’s playoff chances are a lot like Troy Stecher’s Movember growth outlook: it’s possible something could happen, but I wouldn’t put money on it.
Vancouver’s wins have mostly come against bottom feeding teams. Against real contenders, they’ve only notched two victories, besting the New York Rangers 5-3 in October, and edging the St. Louis Blues 2-1 in overtime. Of their 10 wins, seven have happened against teams not currently holding a playoff spot.
Things look bleaker against conference contenders. Vancouver looked plain outmatched by Anaheim, and it’s their second loss to the Ducks this season.
Should they eke out one of the last two spots in the Western Conference, they can expect a first-round match up with the likes of the Los Angeles Kings, the Anaheim Ducks, the Chicago Blackhawks, or the San Jose Sharks.
Their respective PDO rankings indicate that none of these teams is overachieving. In fact if anything, LA has a lot more to show.
Having just experienced a demoralizing loss to an expected Stanley Cup contender, how deep does anyone think a Canucks playoff run would really go?
The playoff mindset just robs Vancouver of the picks it could acquire at the trade deadline for roster players. And it potentially robs them of the opportunity to select a cornerstone player like Nolan Patrick at the draft.
So, for crying out sakes, let’s not put too much of a premium on punching that postseason ticket.
