The Canucks have a comeback problem. One half of the problem has been well-covered: the Canucks allow comebacks constantly and have the worst winning percentage in the league when leading after two periods.
The other half of the problem is they can’t come back. They have yet to win a single game when trailing after the first period. They’re 0-10-3 when trailing after one and 0-13-1 when trailing after two.
It makes it tough to be a fan when a loss seems inevitable as soon as the other team gets a lead. The Canucks struggle to score, but seem to struggle most when they’re behind.
Part of the reason may be who is on the ice: Derek Dorsett plays more than any other Canucks forward when the Canucks are down by a goal.
When this was pointed out on Twitter by Micah McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath), I could hardly believe it. I knew Dorsett and his linemates were getting more ice time than the typical fourth line, but this was alarming.
Canucks deployment by score. @risingaction pic.twitter.com/muV5psP9Tg
— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) December 17, 2015
Turns out it’s true. When the Canucks are trailing by one goal, Derek Dorsett has played 94:50 this season at 5-on-5. Daniel Sedin has played 93:47.
When the Canucks are behind and looking for a goal, Dorsett has played over a minute more than the Canucks’ leading scorer who is currently 6th in the NHL in points.
It gets worse when you consider games played. On McCurdy’s graph, the y-axis is percentage of available ice time, so it takes into account how often the Canucks have trailed by one goal in games that forward has played.
If you look at percentage of available ice time, Brandon Prust leads the Canucks when they’re down by one. Here’s the full chart:
| Name | TOI | TOI% |
| Brandon Prust | 61.58 | 28.54 |
| Derek Dorsett | 94.83 | 27.52 |
| Daniel Sedin | 93.79 | 27.21 |
| Adam Cracknell | 82.68 | 27.04 |
| Jannik Hansen | 91.47 | 26.54 |
| Ronalds Kenins | 7.62 | 26.31 |
| Henrik Sedin | 90.16 | 26.16 |
| Bo Horvat | 89.32 | 25.91 |
| Radim Vrbata | 79.48 | 24.96 |
| Chris Higgins | 62.71 | 24.21 |
| Brandon Sutter | 28.69 | 23.78 |
| Alex Burrows | 77.44 | 22.47 |
| Jared McCann | 74.66 | 22.47 |
| Sven Baertschi | 56.42 | 20.13 |
| Jake Virtanen | 35.88 | 19.72 |
The Canucks’ fourth line, which has combined for six goals, plays more than the Canucks’ first line when down by a goal. Radim Vrbata, second on the team in goals, is 9th in percentage of ice time when down by a goal.
The Canucks young, skilled forwards, including Jared McCann who is 5th on the Canucks in goalscoring with seven goals, are all at the bottom of the list.
There doesn’t seem to be any reason for this to be the case. The Canucks’ fourth line hasn’t played poorly, by any means, but they’re not offensively gifted players and are not going to score the goals the Canucks need when they’re trailing.
Why does Dorsett play more than the Sedins when down by one? To be responsible defensively and prevent the Canucks from going down by more than one goal? To get in a fight and somehow “inspire” a comeback?
Honestly, the idea that Dorsett gets more ice time than the Sedins in any situation actually offends me. The fact that it’s when the Canucks need scoring the most is just appalling.
This is a problem. I don’t have any solution to this problem other than stop. Stop doing that. Just stop it.
*All statistics from war-on-ice.com and NHL.com
